The article presents a long-term forecast of Russia's gross agricultural output until 2036, developed based on an economic and mathematical partial equilibrium model and considering two development scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic). In the optimistic scenario, with no restrictions on the supply of agricultural machinery, the average annual growth rate of agricultural production is expected to be 2.2% (index 144.4% by 2021), while in the pessimistic scenario, with restrictions on the import of agricultural machinery, the average annual growth rate is expected to be 0.9% (index 111.9%). To achieve the projected production volumes, it is necessary to introduce 20 million hectares of arable land into circulation, increase the fleet of machinery by 45-65%, provide 12.1 million tons of mineral fertilizers per year, and increase the productivity of livestock and crops. The requirements for capital investments in agricultural organizations and the indices of investments in fixed assets (average annual growth of 3.6-3.7%) have been calculated. The forecast takes into account strategic documents on the development of the agro-industrial complex, technical support limitations, investment activity, and global trends. The forecast results can be used in the development of long-term strategies for the development of the agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation.
This article examines import substitution in the agro-industrial complex through the lens of innovative development and the transition to technological sovereignty. An analysis of the agricultural sector's development from 2022 to 2024 demonstrates that mechanically substituting imported goods with domestic equivalents does not provide long-term economic benefits. Priorities include developing a domestic breeding and genetic base, localizing the production of high-tech equipment, and deep digitalization of the industry. The article examines the dynamics of overcoming agricultural organizations' dependence on external supplies: while the share of domestic seeds for winter wheat consistently exceeds 90 percent, for sugar beet, it remains at a critical level of 8.2 percent. The positive impact of state-funded preferential leasing programs, which have increased agricultural machinery supplies to Russian farmers by 42 percent, is assessed. The authors pay special attention to the problem of personnel shortages: the demand for specialists with digital competencies has increased by more than 30 percent. Producers who systematically invest in modern, science-intensive agricultural technologies, precision farming systems, and personnel retraining in close cooperation with regional scientific and educational centers maintain stable profitability.
The article considers the current directions for the development of digitalization of agriculture. An analysis of the economic indicators of the industry is carried out, which determine the development of "digital" agricultural enterprises, introducing various automated and technological means at the production stages of agricultural products. One of the important conditions for the development of digital agriculture is investing. Investments increase production efficiency, reduce costs and increase yields. The author has determined the indicators of the investment attractiveness of digitalization of agriculture. The calculation of labor productivity in the industry before and after the introduction of digital technologies in recent years is carried out. The organization's costs for the implementation and use of digital technologies have been determined, the payback period of the investment has been calculated, which is attractive in terms of the return on investment. The relevance of this analysis allows us to identify the economic investment efficiency that ensures the technological development of digital agriculture. The technological introduction of efficient computing power, digital systems, services and platforms contribute to the development of the agricultural industry and the satisfaction of investors' interests for economic results.
The article addresses the problem of assessing the probability of financial statement distortions in livestock enterprises using a comparative methodological framework. The empirical base includes financial reporting data obtained from the SPARK database for the period 2021–2025. The study applies Russian-adapted versions of well-known fraud detection models, including the Beneish model and the Roxas model, as well as the integral approach based on the Safonova model. In addition, an original model is proposed, focusing on the internal consistency of financial indicators and incorporating industry-specific characteristics of livestock production. The results indicate that traditional index-based models demonstrate higher sensitivity and generate a broader risk zone, while integral and author-developed approaches provide a more refined interpretation of potential distortions. The highest concentration of risk signals is observed in the poultry sector, which is associated with high volatility of financial indicators. It is argued that a combined methodological approach improves analytical robustness and allows for identifying entities whose financial statements require deeper examination.
The classification of subjects of land relations is carried out based on their role in assigning a certain part of income in agriculture. The peculiarity of land rent formation in agriculture is noted. The main economic difference between modern agriculture and industry lies in the formation of the rate of return on invested productive capital in the worst production conditions, rather than in average ones, which leads to the formation of land rents. This scientific statement is the basis for determining the amount of land rent by an income approach. The market approach to assessing income distribution in agriculture assumes that in the modern economy, land rent is also determined by the income of the landowner from renting it out, if other factors of production are not involved in the formation of rent. The calculations of the entrepreneur's profit and land rent have been carried out using these methodological approaches at the level of administrative entities in the country, which are classified into three categories according to production conditions: the best, average and worst. The economic calculation of the entrepreneur's profit and land rent indicates the high reliability of the results obtained by these approaches. This fact indicates the possibility of assessing the distribution of income and profit of a commodity producer between subjects of land relations not only at the level of state and municipal entities, but also producers in the presence of appropriate reporting organizations and market indicators. Instruments for regulating income distribution in agriculture are proposed, where priority is given to the entrepreneur rather than the landowner.
Russia's grain dampener mechanism – combining a floating export duty on grain with producer subsidies – has been in operation since 2021 as a tool for insulating domestic food markets from world price volatility. Between 2022 and 2024, the mechanism's key parameter – the first base price, which determines the duty threshold – was revised upward on three occasions. This article quantitatively evaluates the consequences of each revision using an original partial equilibrium model. The model covers the wheat market (production, domestic consumption, and exports), the derived markets for bread products and meat, and the effects on the balance of payments and budget revenues. The novelty of the approach lies in the explicit parameterization of the export duty structure, the endogenous feedback from Russian exports to world prices, and the linkage between the grain and consumer markets through input-output coefficients. The results show that each base-price increase raised domestic wheat producer prices by 6–12%, stimulated output growth of 1.2–2.2%, and boosted exports by 2.5–4.7% relative to the counterfactual of no policy change. Effects on retail bread and meat prices and on the consumer price index were modest, with CPI changes not exceeding 0.1 percentage points. At the same time, the reduction in the duty rate led to a substantial fall in customs revenues (from –15% to –38%), indicating that the state budget is the primary source financing the redistribution of benefits toward producers. The findings support evidence-based regulatory impact assessment for future revisions of similar instruments.
Common in the process of economic growth of the agro-industrial complex and other sectors of the real economy are significant efforts to weaken the negative external conditions of development, especially in order to strengthen the self-sufficiency of scientific and technological solutions and developments in the conditions of economic and information external blockade of the economy. When studying the dynamics of the development of agricultural enterprises in the Central, Central Black Earth and Volga Federal Districts, grouped according to various characteristics, a stronger positive impact on the growth of economic efficiency of management, the quality of production management and the use of the variety of its organizational forms was found in comparison with the impact of innovative activity. The research revealed a weak correlation between the economic efficiency of agricultural production and the amount of government assistance. The conclusion is that to improve the economic results of farm support, it is necessary to monitor labor productivity and the level of organization and management when using farm assistance. The reasons for the decrease in the growth rates of economic efficiency of agricultural production with the growth of its volume indicators - output, exports, lagging behind the rates of costs per unit of resource capacity - are analyzed.
The dynamics of regional economies correlate with the consumption and demand of the product of its territorial and sectoral specialization. The latter, in turn, are formed by the consumer and market characteristics of this product. It is believed that the greater the consumer properties of the product, and the greater the number of consumers who have a need for it, the more dynamic and widespread its consumption and demand will be. Through demand and consumption, the supply and production of the product are stimulated. These determinants serve as the basis for studying the demand and consumption of the product. However, consumption and especially demand are not static quantities that are determined by the same physiology, for example. On the contrary, product demand is a dynamic quantity that is shaped by a variety of factors with both obvious and hidden connections. This aspect of any product requires in-depth research. The subject of this study is apples, and the market is the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic. The focus of the study is due to the role that Kabardino-Balkarian horticulture has played in Russia over the past decade. Despite its small size, the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic is the leading producer of apples in Russia, surpassing regions that were previously considered the undisputed leaders. In this regard, it is important to understand the nature, causes, and prerequisites of this situation. This study aims to explore the consumption and demand for apples in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic.
The Siberian region is a major producer of food in Russia. The livestock industry plays an important role in providing the population with valuable food products. The distribution of the industry has significant territorial differences. In the western part of the region, the industry is mainly represented by dairy and meat-and-dairy cattle breeding and pig farming, while in the eastern part, it is represented by semi-fine and fine-wool sheep farming, meat and meat-and-dairy cattle breeding, horse breeding, and reindeer herding. The current unfavorable economic, demographic, technological, and social conditions have a negative impact on the development of the industry. These include the continuing disparity in prices for agricultural and industrial products, the shortage of financial resources and the decline in investment activity, the industry's dependence on imported breeding stock, vaccines, feed additives, and equipment, the problems with the feed base and animal feed supply, the outflow of working-age population, and the shortage of qualified personnel in rural areas. Problems with unaccounted livestock, animal identification, and labeling are associated with the risk of spreading infectious diseases. This leads to a decrease in the number of animals and a reduction in production volumes. Government support measures are aimed at mitigating the impact of existing negative factors, ensuring epizootic well-being in the region, increasing the number of animals, and addressing food security issues.
Annotation. The purpose of the study is to reveal the potential and risks of «green» technologies based on the analysis of modern practice of their application in agriculture. The methodological basis of the study was analysis, synthesis, observation, modeling, expert assessment, and the logical method. The main results of the study: the modern practice of using «green» technologies in global and domestic agriculture has been studied; the potential of «green» technologies in ensuring the sustainability of agriculture and the associated risks have been identified; measures for the formation of a risk management system in relation to «green» technologies used in agriculture are proposed. The theoretical significance of the research lies in the development of the scientific foundations of the use of «green» technologies in agriculture, and the practical significance lies in the use of the results obtained in the development and implementation of government policies aimed at the «green» technological development of agriculture, contributing to its sustainability.