The relevance of this study stems from the need to develop a systematic approach to the digital transformation of the agro-industrial complex based on Big Data analysis technologies to improve its competitiveness and sustainability. The objective of the study is to develop a concept for using Big Data in agriculture. The methodology is based on a comprehensive approach combining empirical research (surveys) into the needs and barriers of key stakeholders, as well as architectural and organizational-economic design methods. The results obtained allowed us to formulate a holistic framework for the Concept, comprising five interconnected blocks: target (methodological), structural-managerial, infrastructure-technological, a performance monitoring and evaluation system, and an implementation mechanism. The key conclusion is the need to integrate the new digital system with existing federal government information systems (FGIS), ensure a balance of interests among various stakeholder groups, and utilize a phased implementation of Big Data analytics technologies. Based on the analysis, a dynamic management model was proposed, ensuring the practical feasibility of the Concept and the possibility of its replication in other regions, taking into account industry specialization.
Proposals for improving the territorial-sectoral division of labor in Siberian agriculture call for increased production to ensure food consumption according to established rational health standards, develop interregional trade, and further increase agricultural and food exports. A currently pressing issue is improving the mechanism of distribution and specialization by reorienting agricultural production development based on "smart specialization," which involves the formation of specialized zones for the production of specific products. The effective use of the production potential of the agro-industrial complex directly depends on the rational distribution and specialization of agricultural production, the essence of which is expressed in the concentration of production resources (land, labor, capital investment) in those sectors whose development is economically feasible in a given territory and under specific conditions. Proposals for improving the mechanism of distribution and specialization in agricultural production demonstrate ongoing changes in the distribution and specialization of production and the impact of these processes on various aspects of agricultural development. This requires: modern methods of organizing and managing agricultural production; New proposals and opportunities for innovative development of the region's leading agro-industrial complex, where location and specialization can meet demand for products from regional markets and food markets, primarily in the Asia-Pacific region. To evaluate the effectiveness of proposed specialization and location solutions, researchers propose various indicators and new business models using digital technologies [1]. In this regard, the final evaluation criterion is the profitability and revenue of agricultural producers' products sold in domestic and foreign markets. The optimal combination and selection of industries in a specialized zone will ensure a significant increase in overall profitability of production, with the accelerated development of the leading industry and will allow for a synergistic effect, which in turn will contribute to increased efficiency in agricultural production.
Ensuring food security is a key element of the national security strategy for the long term. Dependence on food imports can become a source of vulnerability in the context of foreign policy conflicts or economic restrictions, and, consequently, a threat to the preservation of State sovereignty. It should be noted that the previously actively promoted models of free exchange of food-related goods based on minimizing production and sales costs are becoming a thing of the past, as elements of non-market competition and the introduction of restrictive measures are becoming more and more clearly visible, which not only reduce the level of availability of agricultural goods, but also affect deeper processes responsible for the availability of food. countries or continents. In such conditions, it is necessary to consider the process of food production and sale not just as a competitive advantage of one producer over another, which is obvious for the domestic market, but also much more broadly – as an element of promoting economic interests in the international market of food products, where competition between different forms of production recedes into the background, since promotion in foreign markets is a key task for the state, ensuring that it is necessary to take into account the interests of all participants in the agri-food market, regardless of their size of production or forms of ownership. Enterprises of different forms of management involved in food production make different contributions to food security. The article considers: the evolution of food security concepts in the world and in Russia; the level of self-sufficiency of Russia with various food products is studied and the roles of agricultural producers of various forms of management in ensuring food security in Russia are established; the directions of development of the agro-industrial complex are highlighted and the importance of small agricultural business in the production of agricultural products is determined; proposals for expanding forms of support for private farms are formulated.
The methodological basis for adjusting the course of the export-oriented strategy in the agro-industrial complex to the development trends of the global food market is economic forecasts. Taking into account the fact that the strategic goal of the state is to increase the volume of exports of agricultural products by 1.5 times by 2030 compared to 2021, the question arises: what promising areas of export of agricultural products will ensure the achievement of this goal in modern trade formats. In this regard, there is a need to develop and justify a forecast for the development of the domestic meat and meat products market, which makes it possible to assess the prospects for the development of its individual segments both within the country and in the system of international economic relations, improving the priorities of the state agri-food policy. The article outlines the trends in the development of the global meat and meat products market, analyzes the dynamics of domestic production and exports of certain types of meat. A forecast of the domestic demand of the country's population for meat and meat products has been developed according to two scenarios: basic and optimal, taking into account rational norms of food consumption, as well as the tastes and preferences of Russians, and the economic accessibility of food. Forecasts of production and export of certain types of meat from Russia have been developed according to three main scenarios: basic, targeted, optimistic. The baseline scenario is based on maintaining the current dynamics of production and export supplies of meat with a total export volume of up to 1066.18 thousand tons. The target scenario is aimed at increasing the production and export of poultry and pork meat with a total volume of meat exports of 1,294.18 thousand tons. The optimistic scenario assumes an active expansion of domestic meat producers into the markets of Southeast Asian countries with an increase in the total volume of meat exports to 1583.35 thousand tons. The implementation of the targeted and optimistic scenarios will require active government support for the livestock industry, stabilization of the macroeconomic situation in the country related to the creation of a favorable investment climate in the industry, and strengthening trade and economic cooperation with the EAEU, CIS, China and other Southeast Asian countries.
The current level of technical support for agriculture is characterized by a shortage of machinery, its physical wear and a high proportion of imported machines in the fleet. To increase the efficiency of agricultural production, it is necessary to solve the issue of updating and forming an optimal fleet of agricultural machinery, which in the current economic and geopolitical conditions requires the development of domestic agricultural machinery. Government support measures such as the provision of subsidies to agricultural machinery enterprises for the sale of agricultural machinery at a discount, preferential leasing and the provision of preferential loans to agricultural producers are aimed at solving these problems by increasing effective demand. Among these mechanisms, one of the most highly effective is the provision of subsidies in accordance with Resolution No. 1432, the allocation of additional funds for the implementation of which had a positive impact on the growth of agricultural machinery production. The article provides a forecast assessment of the possibility of achieving the target indicator of the Agricultural Machinery Development Strategy for the period up to 2030 in terms of the share of domestic machinery in the market. The calculations performed show that with the current level of financing of Resolution No. 1432 and the volume of domestic agricultural machinery production, taking into account the development of the Russian agricultural machinery market, there is a high risk of not achieving the goals set in the Strategy. The implementation of the proposed investment scenario, which provides for a multiple increase in financing of Resolution No. 1432 in the amount of 44.4 billion rubles by 2030, will stimulate the acquisition of 43.0 thousand units. It will contribute to the achievement of the targets of the Agricultural Machinery Development Strategy, the renewal and replenishment of the agricultural machinery fleet.
Analysis of the current state and forecasting the prospects of the dairy industry is a pressing scientific problem. In this paper, a modeling tool for long-term forecasting of the dynamics of the dairy cow population on farms of all categories is developed. Based on the available herd statistics, a model of the turnover of the main herd at the regional level is identified, estimates of the culling and replacement parameters as values minimizing the discrepancy between the actual and theoretical values of the herd are obtained, empirical laws for the distribution of regions by gradations of the values of these parameters are obtained. A long-term forecast of the dynamics of the dairy cow population for the Russian Federation is given under the assumption of an inertial scenario for the development of the industry. A regression model is obtained on panel data linking the number of dairy cows with such factors as annual milk yield, production costs and the selling price of milk, the size of the rural population and the area of forage lands. The model was used in a series of simulation experiments to identify effective strategies for developing the dairy industry and formulate appropriate elements of agricultural policy aimed at stimulating targeted changes in these factors. The effectiveness of all virtual strategies formed by combining standardized impacts on these factors was assessed. A number of strategies were identified whose implementation is capable of meeting the requirements of the Food Security Doctrine, both under positive and negative growth rates of the dairy herd. A "minimum impact" strategy was considered, which involves identifying the factors that have the greatest impact on industry development and minimizing the rate of change while meeting the standard milk self-sufficiency values in line with the Food Security Doctrine.
This study focuses on analyzing the main trends in soybean breeding and seed production in the Russian Federation and the Far Eastern Federal District, in particular. The article provides an assessment of the dynamics of domestic and foreign soybean varieties' seed sowing volumes in the period 2020-2024, as well as the calculation of target indicators for 2030. According to the Russian Government's Order, the strategic development vector is the gradual transition to the dominance of domestic seed material. It is predicted that by 2030, this will reduce the share of foreign soybean varieties and achieve a 75.0% level of self-sufficiency in domestic-bred seeds, which is critical for the sustainable development of agricultural production and ensuring the country's food security, as well as increasing the competitiveness of domestic producers in the global market. The development of scientific and production potential in the field of soybean breeding and seed production has been identified as a priority area. This is due to the fact that the level of self-sufficiency in domestic-bred seeds is a key indicator in the Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the government pays special attention to the situation on the market of agricultural crop seeds, and implements measures to support domestic breeding and seed production centers. In particular, the Federal Scientific and Technical Program for Agricultural Development for 2017-2030 provides for budgetary financing in the form of compensation for 70% of the costs of purchasing seeds and varieties of agricultural crops created within the framework of this program. The assessment of the current state of the seed market and its dynamics helps to develop operational solutions for adjusting seed production activities and research programs related to the creation of new varieties.
The regional state policy for the development of agricultural production in relation to small business forms is characterized by a lack of consistency, uniformity, and limited amounts of financing. The interests of small business entities are maximally realized through agricultural consumer cooperatives. The analysis showed that the number of members in cooperatives, their level of development, the amount of funding and the number of recipients are significantly differentiated in the regions. Due to the low profitability of small business enterprises, cooperatives have limitations in their current activities. In order to overcome the existing dysfunctions of institutions, it is necessary, in addition to activating the activities of competence centers, to expand the volume of support for existing processing and marketing cooperatives. It is also advisable to consider the possibility of supporting small business through a system of supply cooperatives. These measures will increase the level of marketability and profitability of commodity producers and ensure an increase in the production of small-scale enterprises on the market.
This article substantiates the need to form a market mechanism for managing secondary biological resources as a priority tool for strengthening the economic and financial stability of the vegetable farming complex in the Kostanay region of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of a recessionary downturn. For the first time, the authors conducted a decomposition of the reasons for the mass reduction in the number of vegetable farms in the region based on a representative survey, which showed that technological backwardness and the lack of waste processing directly affect the decrease in profitability. A special scientific contribution of this work is the institutionalization of the secondary market for agricultural resources. Based on data on the gross production of carrots and beets, the authors used the normative method to determine the amount of unused biomass – the vegetative part of root vegetables and substandard root vegetables – that was generated annually over the past five years. The use of mathematical and statistical techniques allowed the authors to verify the hypothesis that the formation of unused vegetable waste has a detrimental effect on the viability of peasant (farm) households. The analysis revealed that the lack of a waste management system is responsible for almost a fifth of the cases of farm closures. As an anti-crisis solution, the article proposes a conceptual model of integrating vegetable production with fodder production. It is proven that the formation of a secondary market with its own pricing system and inter-farm connections will provide a synergistic effect: minimizing disposal costs and attracting working capital. In conclusion, the article highlights the relevance of developing new methodological tools for analyzing the agricultural markets of the Kostanay region, which forms a theoretical basis for further research on structural transformations in the regional agricultural industrial sector of Kazakhstan.
The article analyses the dynamics of global wine production in the first quarter of the 21st century (2000–2024). Based on statistical data from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) and national statistical agencies, it examines changes in production volumes and vineyard areas across Old World and New World countries. A sustained decline in global wine production (–15.5% over 25 years) is observed alongside a simultaneous increase in its market value, supporting the hypothesis of a structural transformation towards industry-wide premiumization. A novel export premiumization index is introduced to quantitatively assess countries positioning across price segments. Special attention is given to Russia - the only major wine-producing country demonstrating consistent growth in production (+75.9%) and vineyard areas (+53.1%) against the backdrop of a global downturn. Comparative analysis reveals that, unlike export-oriented models, Russia's development vector focuses on saturating the domestic market with high value-added products, supported by state import substitution programs. Core hypothesis: The observed contraction in global wine production does not signify a crisis but rather a natural stage of transitioning from mass-market products to a high-value-added model. In this context, Russia occupies a unique position, advancing counter-cyclically through intensive growth factors.