Issue № 5, May 2023, article № 1
The article presents the forecast of the main types of agricultural products production in Russia in 2023, covered over 80% of the gross agricultural output in value terms. The forecast made in line with the methodology developed in FSBSI FRC VNIIESH, which takes into account random weather and agrotechnical factors: winter cereals crops conditions, the dynamics of plow land plowing, the application of mineral fertilizers, the availability of tractors and combine harvesters. The impact of a decrease in the supply of imported agricultural machinery on crop production in medium terms is analyzed. The crop production forecast was carried out for three scenarios of random factors implementation: favorable, medium, unfavorable. In animal husbandry, one scenario is calculated for an average year. The basis for determining the year favorableness degree was the grain crops yield. According to our estimates, in 2023 we should expect the implementation of an average weather year with grain production in the amount of 128 million tons (73% probability), a favorable year - 140 million tons (17.4%), an unfavorable year - 91 million tons (8.7%).
Issue № 4, April 2023, article № 1
Assessment of the level of state support for the agro-industrial complex and proposals to increase its efficiency
This paper analyzes the current forms of state support for agricultural producers in Russia and evaluates their effectiveness. In connection with the changed economic circumstances, the existing measures of state support for the agri-food sector in Russia need to be rethought. The problems that need to be faced with the help of changes in the state support system include: revitalizing of effective demand; rising costs for agricultural producers; decrease in investment activity; slow introduction of innovations; shortage of qualified personnel in the field of genetics, breeding and other breakthrough areas; low efficiency of a number of support programs; fluctuations in interest rates; difficulty for small business to participate in programs. The introduction of measures aimed at overcoming bottlenecks will improve the efficiency of state support for the agrifood sector as a whole.
Issue № 4, April 2023, article № 2
The purpose of the paper is to study the patterns of price formation for one of the basic types of food products - fish products. This will improve understanding of the impact of prices on a key element of food security - affordability. For analysis, we decompose price movements into basic components: trend volatility, explained by long-term factors, and short-term volatility, which goes beyond the fluctuations explained by the trend. The study showed that the increase in prices for fish products, which outstripped the general food inflation, led to a noticeable reduction in their consumption. This means that an important social goal of the fisheries activity, which is to ensure the availability of fish products, has not been achieved. Prices for fish products in the Russian Federation are not only growing at a rate that outpaces the general food inflation, but are also highly unstable, which can be interpreted as a threat to the country's food security. The study of the dynamics of prices for a mass fish product - frozen cut fish showed a close relationship between the demand (consumption) of this product and its price; cyclical price changes along with its exponential growth; an increase in the spread of price changes relative to the trend. These features are a serious challenge to food security. While the domestic fishery as a whole provides the country with fish products, the problem of low availability of fish for consumers has not yet been resolved.
Issue № 4, April 2023, article № 3
In the article the motivation research is presented as a tool for overcoming imbalances in the agricultural labor market. The necessity of adjustments in the human resource management system regarding the nature of understanding, function, purpose and method of application of traditional methods of labor motivation is revealed. It is proved that the concept of "motivation" is aimed at purposeful behavior to achieve the desired goals and results of the company's activities, originating from sources in/outside the personality. The directions of goal-setting in the field of labor motivation have been formed. It is assumed that in the long term, high wages do not contribute to labor productivity, but need to be structured based on the importance, relevance and productivity of work, individual results and special advantages. In theoretical terms, it is determined that "stimulation" provides for the influence on the employee's work activity by creating personally significant conditions of the work situation, which contains an incentive from the outside and structural components of the work situation. The key directions for the development and implementation of a motivational system at the agro-industrial complex enterprise are highlighted, including social diagnostics at the enterprise, calculation of financial costs for the introduction of a system of motivation and stimulation of personnel, detailed informing of personnel about the evaluation system and methods of accrual of bonuses and penalties, launching and testing the system based on the results of comparing costs and profits at the enterprise. The directions of rational management of human resources, the main factors of motivation, the system of incentives and motivations in the modern labor market of the agro-industrial complex are systematized.
Issue № 4, April 2023, article № 4
Researches have shown that since the early 2000s, Russia has become a significant player in international agri-food markets, providing up to 20% of wheat supplies, 30% of sunflower oil. The analysis of export activity in the context of regions indicates its extremely uneven development. At the same time, there is a low diversification of exports of agricultural products, that is, regions most often specialize in exporting 1-2 types of products. This ensures a high dependence of the country's export activity on the production indicators of a particular type of product. The expansion of the product range of exported goods is required due to the activation of domestic production of certain types of products. At this stage, it is advisable to improve the agrarian policy of the state in terms of updating measures and directions of state support for potential export sub-sectors. The state policy aimed at further expanding the country's export presence in international agri-food markets should take into account the population's need for food and ensure its full satisfaction in accordance with the standards of consumption. On the example of the Rostov region, possible directions of export specialization of domestic agricultural producers are considered, taking into account the self-sufficiency of the region with certain types of food. The conducted analysis showed the unpreparedness of the southern region for the transition to the export of agricultural raw materials and food not related to grain and fat-and-oil production.
Issue № 4, April 2023, article № 5
The needs of the population for high-quality and affordable food products necessary for normal life and a healthy lifestyle cannot be met without the development of the domestic pasta market and food industry enterprises. The relevance of statistical research of the current state of the pasta market, which is one of the socially significant and popular food products of the Russian buyer, is a priority at the national and regional levels of the country. Accordingly, the purpose of the study is a statistical analysis of the current state, features, problems and prospects for the development of production and consumption of pasta in the Russian Federation. As a result of the conducted research, the following conclusions were obtained: the dynamics of Russian pasta production is characterized by significant changes and a deep crisis in the 1990s, only in 2016 domestic producers managed to exceed the level of 1991.; the food industry is currently experiencing a number of problems related to the shortage of the gross harvest of durum wheat, which in turn leads to the production of pasta from baking flour that does not meet the quality indicators of pasta; state targeted and targeted support for agricultural producers and the protectionist policy of protecting the domestic food market will ensure the progressive development of the Russian pasta market in the medium term. The results of the conducted research will be useful to scientists and specialists for the formation of management decisions aimed at satisfying consumer demand for socially significant goods and ensuring food security in Russia.
Issue № 4, April 2023, article № 6
Analysis of the supply on the market of pig production in the conditions of the reproduction process (on the example of the Irkutsk region)
The stability of the supply in any food market, including the market of pig products, is the key to ensuring the food security of the region, solving the priority tasks of the state in the field of import substitution and supplying the population with high-quality food. To analyze the formation of the supply of pig products on the market in the conditions of the reproductive process, a system of indicators based on typical differences in reproduction is proposed. This technique allows us to assess the level of supply on the market, the fullness of the market with products of our own production, to identify opportunities for growth in production volumes. In the Irkutsk region, the supply of pig products of its own production on the market is limited, since local agricultural organizations do not produce enough products to achieve the level of food security enshrined in the Doctrine and in comparison with the actual level of consumption of pig products. At the same time, there is a steady increase in pork production in the region. The main producers in the region are agricultural organizations and households of the population. Over time, the share of households of the population as producers is gradually decreasing. Small and medium-sized producers need to provide breeding animals to increase their own pork production, as well as to improve the feed base. The bulk of enterprises and organizations producing pork are small, mostly unprofitable entities. Only one enterprise is engaged in large–scale industrial production of pig products - Usolsky Pig Complex, which has advanced technologies and equipment for pork production and is a leader among local producers, produces more than 55% of all pig products in the region. The regional market of pig products has significant potential for its further development. The joint work of producers and administrative structures will make the market of pig products more accessible to buyers and more attractive to producers.
Issue № 4, April 2023, article № 7
Export potential of expanded food reproduction in Russia amid escalating economic sanctions and restrictions
The events held by the Government of the Russian Federation connected with rendering full support to producers of the sphere of agrarian and industrial complex contributed to sustainable development of the agrarian sector of the country and accumulation of volumes of release of ready-made products of food for the purpose of their subsequent realization on the markets of external consumers. However, the modern operating conditions of agriculture of Russia created because of aggravation of a geopolitical situation in the world and also escalation of economic sanctions from the states of the West, leave the mark on implementation of productions in the industry. The main threats of a rupture of the settled integration communications of the country with the western partners which defined need of urgent reorientation of export of agricultural raw materials and food in favor of the countries of the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia, India and China are reflected in article. Creation of new communications with potential participants of the foreign trade relations and the subsequent their development will possibly cause the objective necessity in reorientation of the export potential of Russia. Performance of this task has to be coordinated with the main condition accepted in 2020 Doctrines of food security of the Russian Federation – accounting of priorities of self-sufficiency of the country and its regions the vital food. As the solution of this problem ensuring processes of expanded reproduction can serve in agriculture. In article the structure of export of agricultural products of Russia is investigated and also her main consumers in a section of the certain countries are defined. In work at the level of the Russian Federation export growth of agricultural raw materials and food and decrease in its import for the analyzed time period is revealed. In a research the structure of export of food of the Saratov region is studied, its dynamics on specific grocery groups is considered, the main buyers in the context of the certain countries are defined. Authors developed the model including search of the optimum ratio of set of the budgetary and investment resources used in the industry allowing reaching the set level of efficiency of its functioning.
Issue № 4, April 2023, article № 8
The essence of poverty as a socio-economic category having a concrete historical character and its social consequences are described. The general and specific causes of the deep rural-urban inequality in the spread of poverty in Russia, which poses a threat to the gene pool of the nation and the country's food security, are revealed. The purpose, objectives, principles and priority directions of the fight against rural poverty for the period up to 2030 are formulated. The necessity of outstripping the rate of reduction of the share of the poor among those employed in agriculture and living in rural settlements in order to overcome the concentration of Russian poverty in rural areas is substantiated. The main organizational and economic mechanisms for solving the tasks set to achieve the strategic goal are outlined, including the development of the rural labor market and overcoming its mono-sectoral nature, improving the quality of human capital and agricultural labor productivity, overcoming economically and socially unjustified inequality in the profitability of agricultural labor and other activities in the real sector of the economy, as well as in wages of social sphere in urban and rural areas, etc. It is argued that within the framework of social support for the poor, the key mechanism is the organization of domestic food aid in the country on the basis of domestic production, which can give a multiplicative effect for the development of the food sub complex and ultimately the entire economy, and on this basis, reducing poverty in the country at a faster pace of this process in rural areas.
Issue № 4, April 2023, article № 9
Impact of causal relationships between environmental and social risks on the development of rural areas of the region
The article investigated the impact of causal relationships between environmental and social risks on the development of rural areas of the region. The sustainable development of rural areas is characterized by an increasing role of operational management of current social risks against the background of strategic management of environmental risks and the development of preventive measures to minimize them. Against the background of improving the integrated idea of risks in general, and causal relationships between their species at the level of rural areas, it makes it possible to take into account the severity of the consequences of each type of risk, their impact on the achievement of strategic goals for the development of rural areas and agricultural enterprises in these areas functioning. It is determined that risk-generating factors exacerbate the development of rural areas and influence their economic, social and production activities, and as a result, contribute to an increase in the scale of the consequences of risk events. It was revealed that risk-forming factors form negative environmental consequences affecting the level of quality of life of the region's population. Environmental risks are the root cause of social risks of rural development, where it is important to highlight a complex of causal events of an accidental nature that entail environmental violations, accompanied by a deterioration in the health of rural residents, a decrease in the ability of agricultural workers to work, life and professional demotivation and other social problems. To solve the identified problems, it is proposed to build a generalized map of the relationship between environmental and social risks of rural areas of the causal factor model. When forming a generalized map, the methodology for constructing a matrix map of environmental and social risks of rural areas of risk for rural areas of Kuzbass was used. It is advisable to take the study and its gods into account when adjusting strategic development programs for rural areas.