The existing economic and mathematical models of industrial development and the proportions of development of the agro-industrial complex did not sufficiently take into account macroeconomic factors. The article considers the model of long-term development of industries, which optimizes material and cost proportions of agro-industrial complex at the level of the country according to the criterion of maximization of food consumption by the population of Russia. The model includes a system of linear equations: resource and product balances, material and cost and reproduction balances. On the basis of the calculated volumes of production according to the basic model, a separate linear model determined the possible volumes of consumption by decile groups of the population and the volumes of food exports for 2030, taking into account the solvent demand within the country. The work analysed macroeconomic indicators of production and consumption; Trends in food consumption by country as a whole and by decile group (value and in kind); Dependence of consumption on the dynamics of real-disposable incomes of the population and other factors have been identified. The forecast of consumption and exports for 2030 is presented in two scenarios: the first - in conditions of growth of consumption per capita in accordance with the basic scenario of Russia, the second - while maintaining current trends in income and consumption. Conclusions were drawn on the possibility of achieving internal consumption according to rational standards and meeting the tasks of exporting products of the agro-industrial complex.
Statistics show that the mobilization of domestic resources for import substitution contributed to positive dynamics-Russian agriculture has reached a new level of sustainability and has a significant potential for integration into the world agri-food system. Qualitative changes are taking place in the domestic agro-industrial complex, but all the problems accumulated over many years have not been solved. The consequence of inefficient labour organization is a lag in productivity, profitability and quality. In the modernization of agricultural production, the main emphasis should be placed on the introduction of digital innovative technologies, with a focus on resource conservation, which would lead to savings in both material and labour resources, while ensuring intensive development. This requires a transition to the development of the principles of lean production in the agricultural sector. This will require the transformation of both external-export policy, state support, and internal factors of development of the industry, which are no less important. This is due to the specifics of agricultural production and technological losses of products at different stages. It is necessary to rethink the entire system of production, processing and sales of products to minimize or eliminate all types of losses. And this requires scientific study of the concept, methods, tools and mechanism of transition to lean production. The implementation of the principles of lean organization of production in agriculture will allow obtaining competitive products in quality and price, in demand from the point of view of self-sufficiency, and corresponding to the strategic prospects of earning on agricultural exports.
The article assessed the promising directions of development of the digital economy, as well as identified the directions of scientific research in which Russian scientists are leaders. In order to intensify the processes of implementation of information and communication technologies in Russia in recent years, the relevant normative and legal acts have been adopted, which involve the implementation of the relevant measures and their financing. At the same time, terminology, goals, objectives and partly the organizational mechanism are not sufficiently aimed at improving the efficiency of Russia’s economy. The main problems on which it is necessary to focus attention for active growth of the information component of the economy are considered in the work. In particular - training, specialization of scientific directions, costs of scientific research in terms of development and introduction of elements of digital technologies in the real sector of the economy.
Accelerated development of integration processes in the agri-food complex has been one of the import phase-out factors in the food provision of the population. Functioning of integrated structures has multiplicating social and economic effect. Being the major players on the agri-food market, they have significant influence on the social and economic development of the host regions and, in their turn, they are involved in the integrated structures development. At the same time, interests of stakeholders and integrated structures can not only be different but also opposite. Therefore, the goals and objectives of integrated structures functioning can come in to collision with the regional interests. Economic dominance of integrated structures in the region of production facilities location contributes to their further development, extension of the geographic footprint and formation of interregional agroholdings. At the same time, attention to the interests of stakeholders of the host region decreases, the integrity of its agri-food complex disappears. Positions of the economically feeble regions become weaker. Transfer of the production or processing of the agricultural products to another territory stipulates the decrease of self-sufficiency of the region with food, loss of taxation base and work places reduction. This intensified seven more the disproportions in the development of agri-food complex of the regions. In economically developed regions there are more favourable conditions for integrated structures functioning that stipulate the growth of food goods production growth.
The purpose of the study is to provide scientific justification of the need to use a systematic approach in the development and implementation of a strategy for sustainable rural areas development at the regional level. The author's algorithm is presented, the logical sequence of the main stages and procedures is shown, the research methods application that reveal the most detailed content of the strategizing of sustainable rural areas development. It is concluded that necessary to design strategic programs and anti-crisis measures that should focus on the application of a systematic approach and methods of cluster analysis. The rural system municipalities in the region can be considered as a certain model territory from the point of view of the appropriateness if applying a systematic approach and cluster analysis methods for its sustainable growth and development. On the example of such a region as the Republic of Bashkortostan, the article presents the results of the rural areas clustering on the production of agricultural food products. On the republican level, «reference» («leaders») and «target» («outsiders») municipalities which produce the agricultural food are distinguished. It is summarized, that cluster technologies should be used as a system tool for designing a strategy for sustainable rural areas development.
The village undoubtedly plays a decisive role in the development of agriculture and the country as a whole. The existing rural policy of Russia requires adjustment and adoption of comprehensive state programs for the development of rural areas of the country. Particular attention should pay to northern rural territories that are “dying” without appropriate state support and an effective governance mechanism. To determine the effective levers of managing the rural territories of the Komi Republic, it is necessary to determine the socio-economic potential of each municipal district and urban district as a whole for the region. To achieve this goal, a rating assessment of the socio-economic potential carried out. Two periods of 2010 and 2018 assessed to identify the positive or negative dynamics of the development of the area. The analysis carried out using the selected 45 indicators, which conditionally divided into blocks: population, employment and income, production and investment, improvement and housing and public utilities, medicine, education, social infrastructure, law and financial resources. As a result, a composite rating of nine blocks was calculated. The municipalities of the region divided into groups depending on the rural population living in them. The results obtained make it possible to formulate proposals for improving the management of rural territories of the northern region based on their socio-economic potential.
The analysis revealed a significant trim of the population of a number of regions, both in terms of income and availability of production. The combined influence of factors had a direct impact on the population’s preference for emigration, resulting not only in the outflow of the population, but also in the destruction of a huge amount of territory. This issue is particularly acute in the remote northern territories, whose population is "leading" in the proportion of the poor who have incomes below the subsistence level. At the final stage of the work, an analysis of the population change in terms of federal districts was carried out. A group of eleven regions has been identified, in which the rate of population decline is highest. The relationship has been identified and the impact of the negative trend of early decline in food availability on the dynamics of population decline in the regions has been shown. Since the regional authorities were unable to solve the problem, it was suggested that federal missions should concentrate their efforts to solve problems in a number of regions.
The article considers the results of agro-industrial integration development in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). A comparative analysis of the main indicators and factors characterizing both quantitative and qualitative changes in agriculture of the EEU Members was carried out. The dynamics of sectoral indicators of agricultural production is presented. Structural shifts have been identified both for theinternal and external EEU agricultural trade. A quantitative assessment of the level of agro-industrial integration in the EEU was carried out on the basis of the share of the internal EEU agricultural trade in the total values of EEU exports and imports. Conclusions and proposals on promising areas of integration cooperation between the EEU Members were made in order to increase the sustainability of the development of national agro-food systems, strengthen the competitiveness of agriculture and expand its export opportunities.
During transition from Soviet to market economy Russian regions developed in different ways – in particular, regions became very different in prices, welfare and distance from the economic centers. The paper considers relations between these variables in dynamics for 2002-2019. It’s shown that during the whole period regions have converged at prices. At the same time during high growth (2002-2008) and after 2014 the goods became more expansive in rich regions. During international economic crisis and in the recovery period 2009- 2014 this tendency was insignificant. During 2002-2014 the highest in flation was in the most distant regions. In the last 5 years this trend was reversed. Some more dependencies have been identified using panel data models. The research is supported by RFBR, grant 19-010-00183.
The economic security of agribusiness as a subject of regulation has a rather complex synthetic structure, the content of which is revealed through a set of conditions and factors ensuring economic efficiency, competitiveness, stability and sustainability of functioning, ability to self-development and progress, forming a state of protection of vital interests of individual enterprises and the country as a whole from internal and external threats (sources of danger). The economic and food security should be assessed on the basis of an integral indicator (group of indicators). At the same time, it is impossible to break the link between the tasks of ensuring the development of agro-industrial enterprises and the economy sector as a whole and the applied tasks of choosing methods of assessing possible risk situations, methods of documentation, methods of monitoring risk management measures, methods of assessing the effectiveness of managing the implementation of established tasks and development plans. The problem of food security management can be considered at three levels: federal (macro-level) as the implementation of state programs, regional (meso-level) and local (micro-level). The methodological approach and tools for assessing the economic security of the agro-industrial complex, as explored in the article, allow to analyze the complex of risk-factors that threaten economic security at each individual level and enterprise, to purposefully organize and carry out the necessary monitoring, to systematically analyze the dynamically changing socio-economic situation, to carry out a feasibility study of the management decisions taken.