The article examines the impact of agrarian policies, including rural development policies, on the encouragement of rural employment. The analysis includes measures of state support implemented at the federal level since 2006. In addition to agrarian policy instruments directly aimed at the development of employment - in agriculture or in the non-agrarian sector of the rural economy, the impact of non-targeted support measures for the labor market is considered. This is a large part of agricultural subsidies and general services support. In addition, the main measures of employment support under national programs are considered from the point of view of their impact on the rural labor market. Given the inevitable decline in the number of people employed in agriculture, the main focus of the study and recommendations is on non-agricultural rural employment. The proposed directions for agricultural policy adjustment assume that public investment in education, quality infrastructure, and market structures are key determinants of the ability to develop the non-agrarian sector of the rural economy and related employment. Therefore, the formation of framework conditions and general services support are considered as more priority forms of state influence in comparison with highly specialized targeted support of certain perspective types of economic activity in rural areas - tourism, collection and processing of wild-growing products, production of building materials, etc. In this sense, the shift in the vector of regional policy from top-down directive centralized distribution of funds to co-financing of local initiatives, enshrined in the State Program "Integrated Development of Rural Areas", is the most significant change in agricultural policy in recent years.
The purpose of this study is an assessment of the current situation in the field of managing the economic growth of agriculture in Russia using the developed methodology "Agrarian Growth Pyramid". The author substantiates the position that the achieved growth in agriculture does not correspond to the country's agricultural potential, it is ambiguous and cannot be fully recognized as economic. Taking into account the current trends in social development and the specifics of the industry, the study applied a new approach to the decomposition of the economic growth of agriculture as part of traditional quantitative and qualitative, and newly introduced generating changes in its state, which makes it possible to take into account all aspects of agricultural dynamics and increase the level of adequacy of its assessment. It is proposed to measure the economic growth of agriculture using a complex indicator visualized using a pyramid, which takes into account not only the parameters of the level and growth rate widely used in practice, but also the state of its base formed as a result of agricultural dynamics. The construction of pyramids and the assessment of the structure of economic growth in agriculture in Russia were carried out in a comparative format with the results achieved in the agricultural economies of the USA, Canada, Germany, and Kazakhstan in the period 2000-2020. The findings of the study indicate that there is a contradiction between the growth of agricultural production in Russia and the lack of the necessary conditions for reproduction in the industry; also there is a significant gap in the level and content of the economic growth of agriculture in Russia and developed countries with a similar agricultural potential; it has been detected the errors in the management of the processes of economic dynamics in the country's agriculture, which determines the main limitations of agricultural growth.
The functioning of agricultural production, more than any other branch of the national economy, is determined by space and time, which causes the need for zoning of territories, since this determines the rental opportunities for the use of land, fixed and variable capital, and the market. The article reveals the problems of spatial development of the rural economy of the priority territories of the country in the context of strategic macroeconomic management. In this regard, a wide range of issues related to the territorial organization of productive forces is considered, with the allocation of the primary link of the spatial economy – "locality", and the largest – "agglomeration". Based on the regional heterogeneity of the agrarian economy, the main theoretical and methodological directions of spatial development of agriculture in geostrategic territories are substantiated, using the example of the North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD). This will make it possible to develop strategic institutional and regulatory documents to influence the process of spatial development of the North Caucasian rural economy, the development of which has not yet reached even the pre-reform level due to non-adaptive macroeconomic policy. The latter led to the deindustrialization of the rural economy of the North Caucasus Federal District, associated with the introduction of an unregulated spontaneous market, private, especially land ownership with the purchase and sale of the main means of agricultural production, alienating it from land use, contrary to the age-old foundations of the multinational North Caucasian peoples, who believed that the land was nobody's, but only God's. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a non-standard, comprehensively balanced, traditional and modern working and living conditions of numerous peoples of the North Caucasus – a new breakthrough macroeconomic strategy for the spatial development of these territories, taking into account their border location, based on a combination of planning and the market, in other words, a model of a planned market economy. Then the opportunities for the development of the productive forces of the North Caucasian village and other sectors of the economy will open up, the severity of the most important problem – unemployment, crime, terrorist attempts will decrease, because socio-economic messages will disappear for this.
The trends that are beginning to dominate the global economy are associated with the ubiquitous use of digital technology. Many countries hope to solve the problem of food supply of the population by using these technologies. The uniqueness and importance of such technologies lies in the fact that their use leads to fundamental shifts, since they affect the basic basis and areas of activity of not only direct participants in the production process, but also related ones, introducing cardinal transformations into their activities. In the agricultural production of most regions of the country (including the subjects of the investigated district), small forms of management are dominant, more than half of the products are produced by these formations. A feature of these types of management is their small commodity. In the looming conditions, the small-scale commodity model cannot be the main form of conducting agro-industrial production due to the fact that its carriers (in the form of existence) cannot single-handedly acquire and use digital technologies, because of their high cost and inaccessibility, as well as because of tougher competition. The main players are large producers and networkers in the external and internal markets of agri-food. The need to update the technological basis of the production process based on the use (implementation) of information and digital technologies will also play a role. To eliminate these problems and at the same time remain competitive, small businesses must unite and concentrate their resources to acquire the necessary technologies and confront threats. The task is to find an optimal solution that would preserve agricultural organizations, peasant (farmer) households, and households, but at the same time they would be reorganized. The article proposes various forms of institutional transformations that will allow small businesses to adapt to emerging conditions.
Currently in the agrarian sphere are only some elements of innovation infrastructure, the activity of which is being implemented in areas such as consulting and analytical, technical services, mediation, training and retraining. There are the following directions of scientific and innovation infrastructure (technological, consulting, financing, preparation of personnel, information and infrastructure market. The most developing branches of the following elements of innovation infrastructure: technology parks, innovation and technological centers, innovative-industrial complexes, and in recent years - technological development zones and technology platforms, clusters. A promising form of innovative development in agriculture are economic societies with the intellectual property created at universities for the promotion of the objects of intellectual property on the market of scientific and technical products. As this type of business has a high level of risk and, however, can have a significant impact on the innovation development, selection and promotion of the most promising young researchers, a number of issues of social development, it is expedient to provide for measures of the state public support for these innovative enterprises.
The dynamics of the development of domestic agriculture dictates for enterprises operating in the industry the need to constantly improve the level of internal competencies in the field of creating and managing innovations. The current state of economic development requires a constant balance of productivity and growth in order to increase profits. The development of the agricultural sector is now resuming its growth rates thanks to the government's policy to support the industry. The use of scheduling mechanisms allows us not only to talk about the forecast in the industry and its basic seasonal aspects, but also about the forecast behaviour in the industry in general. Work in this direction allows us to talk about the phased application of modern technologies in the field of informatization (neural network analysis, modeling, functional bases of structures). The authors presented a number of mathematical operators for identifying the innovation process, taking into account risk quoting. Function tuples are described through basic operator models. The analysis of software products available on the market reveals the existence of a limitation on the use of universal solutions for the tasks facing an integrated management system of an innovative company (enterprise / organization), associated with some redundancy of such universal solutions. At the same time, the seasonal nature of agricultural work necessitates careful planning of all business processes of agricultural enterprises. This work is devoted to the development of a universal tool for ensuring the planning of innovative processes in agriculture. The proposed approach to the scheduling of an innovative project is focused on a competitive adaptive concentration of efforts that ensure innovative development and minimize the time interval of the innovation process.
Russia lags significantly behind the level of developed countries in terms of the participation of SMEs in the state economy. Stimulating an increase in the number of MPs and its share in GDP is one of the priority tasks in the economic development of the Russian Federation at the present time. In this regard, the country has developed and is implementing the National Project "Small and medium-sized entrepreneurship and support for individual entrepreneurial initiative" and the federal projects included in it, which provide comprehensive support for small and medium-sized businesses, including financial, organizational, property and other measures. The article considers the main factors that hinder or have a negative impact on the development of SMEs, as well as specific directions and measures implemented at the federal level and in the regions (for example, the Moscow Region and the Republic of Tatarstan, which are leaders in the number of SMEs in their federal districts). In the agricultural sector of the economy, both federal projects and regional programs and measures are being implemented to stimulate and support the participation of the population in entrepreneurial activity in rural areas on the basis of SMEs. The main financial and credit support measures are the allocation of subsidies, grants, concessional lending and taxation; non-financial measures include the organization of marketing, consulting, educational services, the creation of competence centers and special online portals where you can get comprehensive information related to the activities of SMEs.
The article reveals the role and influence of the forecasting system on the development of the regions of the Russian Federation. Due to the acceleration of scientific and technological progress, the role of forecasting in modern Russia is significantly increasing. The forecast identifies factors that positively or negatively affect socio-economic development, helps to identify some uncertainties that support or hinder the achievement of goals. Forecasting represents a scientifically sound and probabilistic judgment about the future state of a particular system. The Russian economy, its development, in the future will be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, which is primarily due to external factors. This is the effect of sanctions against Russia, an unstable geopolitical environment, oil prices. In this regard, the prediction should be not only probabilistic, but also multivariable, scripted, provided that an effective prediction method is used. There is an assumption that in the long and medium term economic growth will depend directly on the speed and sequence of transformations in the structure of the economy. The ability to overcome infrastructure and resource constraints, the unfavourable demographic situation, the underdevelopment of the material, technical and technological base will play a special role. Forecasting should be of high quality so that its contribution to social development is significant. The article is aimed at solving the problem of the low level of forecasting the development of such complex industries as agro-industrial complex and eliminating shortcomings. This makes it necessary to improve its mechanisms. The study is of practical importance, and its results are used by federal and regional governments in the development of methodological approaches to the forecasting system and management decisions.
Increasing exports of agri-food products is an important factor in achieving Russia's national development goals until 2030. The priority markets for Russian products include European Union countries. The key importance for the realization of the export potential of the Russian agriculture is to identify the features and assess the opportunities for the development of Russian agri-food exports to the EU countries, which is the purpose of this study. The degree of compliance of the export profile of Russia with the import profile of the EU countries, as well as the export profile of the EU with the import profile of Russia, were assessed using trade complementarity coefficients. The dynamics of complementarity indices indicate limited opportunities for a qualitative increase in Russian exports to the EU. The list of commodity groups for the export of which Russia has identified comparative advantages is established using the Balassa and Lafey indices. Most of the groups of agri-food products that Russia has advantages in exporting are supplied by our country to European markets. The share of such goods accounts for almost 60% of the current Russian agri-food exports to the EU countries. They also account for the bulk of the unrealized export potential of Russian agri-food products in European markets. Reaching the potential volumes of supplies to the EU will increase Russian exports of frozen fish to Europe by almost 3 times, wheat by 60%, corn by 5 times, and sunflower oil by almost 16 times. The full realization of Russia's export potential will increase by more than 70% the size of the supply of products to the pan-European market and thereby improve the negative balance of agri-food trade with the EU. At the same time, reaching a positive balance in Russia's agri-food trade with the EU in the foreseeable future is unlikely, despite the policy of the food embargo and the reorientation of Russian trade to the East.
In the twentieth century, industrialization and urbanization stimulated rural outflows from rural to urban areas. An increase in the proportion of the urban population was one of the indicators of the development of the country and its individual regions. The reduction of the rural population was stimulated by the state. The outflow of the population from the villages allowed increasing labor productivity and income of the remaining residents. With the adoption of the State Program for the Integrated Development of Rural Territories (SP IDRT), significant adjustments have been made to this policy: the main goal of the new policy is to prevent a decrease in the share of the rural population in its total number, maintain social control over the territory, and contribute to improving the national security of the country. To achieve the main goal, it is planned to ensure a sharp increase in the employment of the rural population, a faster increase in the incomes of the villagers compared to the townspeople, and an increase in the improvement of rural housing. In this article, in the order of scientific discussion, an attempt was made to consider an alternative SP IDRT version of the policy, which provides not for separate measures for the development of rural territories, but for the integrated development of rural-urban territories. To justify the alternative policy option, data were analyzed for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipal areas based on their classification. According to the results of the analysis, it was found that with an increase in the share of the rural population in the territory, employment and incomes of the population, social payments, budgetary security, and social control over the territory fall. The SP IDRT provides for the preservation of the share of the rural population at approximately the modern level by limiting the outflow of the population from rural settlements, which can negatively affect the employment and income of both rural and urban populations. To ensure the employment of the local population and maintain social control over the territories, it is advisable to form 700-800 urban settlements (small capitals) on the basis of existing rural settlements or the laying of new urban settlements in municipalities where there is no urban population (zero level of urbanization).