The article presents the forecast of the main types of agricultural products production in Russia in 2025, made in line with the methodology developed in Agrarian policy and Agro-industrial complex development department of FSBSI FRC VNIIESH. The main forecast indicators are: areas and agricultural crops yields, livestock and productivity of animals, gross production. As a result of agricultural crops yields analysis from 1980 years onwards, the multidirectional dynamics of yield changes by regions of Russia and types of crops has been established. Favorable years for grain crops are not the same for other ones. In our research the basis for determining the year’s favorability degree was the yield of grain crops, covered over 22% of the gross agricultural output and about 40% of the gross crop production output. Within the framework of the grain yield conditions and production results (outcome of conditions and results), relative indicators of variation and average square deviations are calculated, which were used to predict yield deviations by outcome (favorable, average, unfavorable). A quantitative assessment (probability) of the outcomes occurrence in Russia and in the Russian Federation regions in terms of grain yields has been determined. According to our estimates, in 2025 we should expect the implementation of the average weather year with grain production in the amount of 131.4 million tons (69% probability), a favorable year - 147 million tons (17%), an unfavorable year – 91.8 million tons (14%).
The main problems of reproduction of fixed assets of the agro-food complex of Russia on the basis of innovations, including the Siberian Federal District, are considered. Among them there is the reduction of the machine and tractor fleet at a relatively low rate of renewal, the low level of development of innovative agricultural production technologies, and the use of most of the investments to replace worn-out fixed assets and in limited quantities with the replication of new technologies. The share of innovative products in the total volume of agricultural products shipped by large and medium–sized organizations was only 3.8%, including 4.3% in animal husbandry, 3.1% in annual crop cultivation, and 5.1% in food production. At the same time, the efficiency of investments in farms engaged in innovative activities is higher than in the surveyed organizations as a whole. Capital efficiency increased by 14.3%, and employee productivity increased by 7.7%. The necessity of modernization of the material and technical base in accordance with the model of innovative development of the agro-food complex is shown. Investment priorities are substantiated based on the strategic goal of developing agriculture in the Siberian Federal District, increasing the efficiency of using the region's material, technical and land resources, and taking into account global trends in investing in agri-food systems. Investments should be aimed at increasing agricultural production based on the development of scientific and technical innovation projects and achievements of the digital economy, the creation of production facilities for the production of highly processed products, the greening of production, the introduction of "green", organic and waste-free technologies, and the expansion of socially transformative investments.
The dominant role of Internet technologies in matters of informing all layers of society has led to the emergence of such a digital tool for assessing the activities of organizations and individuals as a digital footprint. Therefore, in the work, based on the state of information resources on the websites of agricultural research organizations (RO), their ability to adequately respond to emerging threatening political and economic challenges for the country using such a tool is assessed, both for those that have undergone the reform procedure started in 2013 and for those that have retained their previous status. For this purpose, based on the conducted classification of digital footprints, appropriate methods for their formation are proposed with subsequent verification using the materials of two monitoring sessions of RO websites. The information resources of the websites are defined as scientific and educational resources, the demand for which was ontologically identified based on an extensive survey of businesses and budgetary structures, including scientific and educational ones in 22 regions of the country. A comparative analysis of the response to the challenges of the above-mentioned RO groups to emerging requests for science from various layers of society is provided. Research has shown that the science reform has proven to be untenable, since at first not a single RО group responded to business requests during the pandemic, and now to requests related to sanctions, which to a large extent served as the reason for large holdings to create their own scientific laboratories and IT structures due to the lack of a mechanism for transferring innovations to the economy in the country. Thus, the head of one of the agricultural holdings at a meeting on June 7, 2023 in the Voronezh Region on the digitalization of agriculture said that science owes a great debt to production.
The megacities growing all over the world determine the transformation of the rural space of entire macroregions and new challenges for spatial planning and management. The influence of Moscow and St. Petersburg on the development of rural areas in nearby regions is not sufficiently taken into account in practice and needs to be studied. Therefore, the aim of the study was to identify changes in the distribution of population and agricultural production in the Central and Northwestern economic regions in 1991-2023, in the context of the impact on the ongoing structural shifts in the location of the regions relative to Moscow and St. Petersburg. According to the "center-periphery" concept, the regions are typified in terms of their remoteness from these megacities. The pattern of population growth in megacities, their near periphery, and its reduction in the semi-periphery and periphery is revealed. The article examines the trends of structural shifts in the production of most types of agricultural products in the Moscow region, regions of the periphery and semi-periphery, as a result of the substitution of agricultural activities around the metropolis with industrial and other infrastructure facilities. It is shown that the production of vegetables, potatoes, poultry and pigs for slaughter has structurally shifted from the Leningrad region to the periphery, while the periphery has lost its position in the production of livestock and eggs. It was found that in cattle breeding, structural changes in the area of influence of megacities occurred due to different rates of production reduction in the regions, in meat and poultry farming due to differences in production growth rates, pig and egg poultry farming were equally affected by upward and downward trends. Peripheral regions with high rates of reduction in the production of most types of products and an unfavorable demographic situation have been identified, where there are risks of an increased downward trend in the agricultural sector and an accelerated outflow of villagers. Organizational and economic measures have been proposed for such areas to solve these problems and attract large-scale investments here.
Agriculture plays an important role both in ensuring national food security and overcoming agflation and solving critical macroeconomic problems. The purpose of the article is to justify high tech as a means of accumulating value added. It argues that the scale of value added accumulation depends on the depth of technological processing rather than the difference between revenue and costs so that the deeper processing the higher the value added. Therefore, the technological policy in agriculture aimed either at its modernization and at the introduction of new product technologies is very important. Technological diversification is a promising path for technological development of agriculture. High tech diversification aimed at high and highest technological processing is considered as most favorable for the accumulation of value added. The author explains the multiple intra industry and macroeconomic effects that result from high tech diversification such as increasing investment opportunities, risks adjustment, reduced environmental damage, accompanying the existing mode of agriculture, increased private and public benefits, S&M development, reduced dependence on import and many others. The author proposes measures for technological and economic development of agriculture aimed at achieving this pathway.
The work is devoted to a comprehensive study of ESG factors in the functioning of economic structures of the agro-industrial complex with the aim of systematizing and expanding them, taking into account national development goals. As part of the study, a system of ESG factors for the agro-industrial complex was formed, which includes basic ESG factors that are currently generally accepted, as well as additional factors that reflect the specifics of the activities of economic structures in the agro-industrial complex. Additional factors are the following: indirect wastewater discharge, biofuel, use of green spaces, soil restoration, animal biodiversity, veterinary and phytosanitary control, green building, fertilizers, staff turnover without taking into account seasonal work, food quality. It has been established that for large forms of business all ESG factors are significant, while for small forms of business they are not; Of all the ESG factors, the least significant for small business structures are those of the management group. ESG factors must be considered taking into account the business model within which a particular economic structure operates, especially within the framework of a heterogeneous agro-industrial complex. It was revealed that the ESG factors of the group of environmental factors, as well as three ESG factors of the group of social factors - average wages and motivation system, human resources development, social investments - are most consistent with national development goals. To the least extent, management factors appear as ESG factors reflecting national development goals. In general, the work has created a system of ESG factors adapted for large and small forms of business in the Russian agro-industrial complex, reflecting the national development goals of the Russian Federation until 2030 and for the future until 2036.
The aim of the work is to clarify the impact of the key rate on the formation of the optimal capital structure of Russian agricultural holdings. A significant increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia in 2023 - 2024 made it possible to prove the validity of the capital structure optimization model, including for agricultural holdings, which is based on the average statistical values of the profitability of their assets and equity. Considering that the average statistical return on assets of an agricultural holding in Russia does not exceed 8%, and the return on equity is 19.5%, it makes sense for such entities to issue bonds as long as the key rate is less than 8%. If the key rate exceeds this threshold, it makes sense for the average agricultural holding to issue its shares as long as the key rate does not exceed 19.5%. When the regulator's key rate exceeds the specified value, it makes sense for agroholdings to issue shares if investors are willing to pay 1:1 to the book value or higher for some reason. The model for optimizing the capital structure of an agroholding is based on the following conditions: 1) the higher the key rate, the higher the level of economic feasibility of issuing shares compared to issuing bonds (using bank loans) until such rate exceeds the value of return on equity; 2) the higher the key rate, the lower the possible price of placing shares in IPO, SPO and FPO; 3) with an unchanged key rate and return on assets, FPO reduces the price of shares; 4) in matters of optimizing the capital structure, the behavior of an agroholding is similar to other domestic public companies. Using the example of the dynamics of the Russian stock market in 2023-2024, we can conclude that the boom in IPOs, SPOs and FPOs of Russian public companies occurred when the key rate began to rise and remained at 16% for a certain period of time. A further increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia created conditions for a decrease in the intensity of IPOs, SPOs and FPOs. In order to implement the possibility of issuing shares at book value and above with a key rate of more than 19.5%, the average agricultural holding must be identified by investors as a growth company, that is, ensure an annual stable increase in revenue and profit at a rate exceeding inflation. Given the objective limitations of additional share issues, agricultural organizations should primarily focus on borrowed capital for regular and systematic capital raising. It is possible to counteract the growth of the key rate in the process of using borrowed capital by maximizing the return on assets or relying on the effect of scale of production (operating leverage).
The purpose of the study is to substantiate the feasibility of using an offset contract and a special investment contract (hereinafter referred to as SPIC) in the domestic production of agricultural machinery and to develop recommendations aimed at the practical implementation of this process in modern conditions. The methodological basis of the research was analysis, synthesis, logical methods and expert assessment. The main results of the study: based on the study of the 2017-2024 fleet of the main types of agricultural machinery, its domestic production and shipment, the justification of the legal possibility and economic feasibility of using an offset contract and a SPIC in relation to the production of agricultural machinery, supported by the disclosure of the essential characteristics and advantages of these forms of public-private partnership (hereinafter – PPP); presentation of recommendations on minimizing/eliminating risks and overcoming obstacles in the creation and development of Russian agricultural machinery production based on an offset contract and a SPIC. The theoretical significance of the research lies in the development of the scientific foundations of the use of offset contract and SPIC in agriculture, and the practical significance lies in the use of the results obtained in the development and implementation of investment projects for the production of agricultural machinery.
The article assesses the production and economic indicators of the development of the dairy cattle breeding industry in the Kaluga region over the past 10 years. Such indicators as the terms of productive use of cows and the achieved yield, profitability of production, price indicators of cost and sale of milk were analyzed. On the basis of scientific, methodological and regulatory documents, calculations were made of the normative payback period of the invested funds for entering the first-class herd according to two research options: subject to on-farm repairs; when buying a breeding netel, which amounted to 8 months and 13.5 months of lactation. The standard level of productivity determining the break-even point of milk production is a value of 6000 kg. Based on the actual performance indicators of the industry as a whole in the region, the minimum parameters for the productive use of dairy cows were calculated, which, with a productivity level of 9274 kg, amounted to 20.5 months in the first version of the studies and 24 months in the second version, while the break-even point is 6800 kg. During the study, three farms of the region with cow productivity in 2023 were analyzed: 5545, 8300 and 9163 kg, the payback period in these farms ranged from 25 months (option 1 only), 25.3 months (option 1 only), 25 months (option 1) and 30.8 months (second option), at break-even points with productivity of 4600, 6240 and 6400 kg of milk. Studies allow us to conclude that with the existing level of cow milk yield and profitability of milk production, the statement about the payback of the cost of buying or raising repair young animals only after 3-4 lactation of the cow has lost its relevance.
The work is devoted to the study of the formation and functioning of the agricultural land market. The existing approaches to the definition of the agricultural land market are analyzed, and it is noted that it is currently in the process of formation. The author's interpretation of the concept of "agricultural land market" is proposed. In addition, the foreign experience of state regulation of the agricultural land market is analyzed and the tools used in world practice are highlighted. The lands under consideration are becoming particularly important in the current economic and political conditions, as well as in the light of current sanctions. This is due to the need to increase the production of agricultural products to ensure food security, which also involves the involvement of new lands in the turnover. At the same time, a significant number of such lands are located in specially protected natural areas (protected areas), the total area of which in Russia is 11.5% of the entire territory of the country. According to environmental restrictions, the Irkutsk region, along with seven other regions of Siberia and the Far East, is included in the group with an average level of environmental restrictions; therefore, the results of research conducted on the materials of the Irkutsk region can be extended to the rest of the regions of the second group.