Analysis of the dynamics of industrial fishery production in the Russian Federation as a component of the country's food security

Issue № 7, 2024, article № 10, pages 87-96

Language: Russian

Original language title: АНАЛИЗ ДИНАМИКИ ПРОДУКЦИИ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО РЫБОЛОВСТВА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ КАК СОСТАВЛЯЮЩЕЙ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ СТРАНЫ

Keywords: FORECASTING, FISH CATCH, FISHERIES, FISH CATCH FORECASTS

Abstract: Providing the population of the Russian Federation with fishery products is an important economic task directly related to the guarantee of food security of the country. This article analyzes the dynamics of catch of "wild" fish for the period 2012-2023. Based on the identified trends in changes in the indicators, forecast models were built and forecasts of catch volumes for the period 2024-2025 were given for the following fish groups: "flounder", "carp", "sea bass, crucian carp, catfish", "herring, anchovy", "cod, merlus, mackrurus", "sturgeon" "passage herring", "mackerel, sablefish" "whitefish", as well as a forecast of the volume of aquatic bioresources of the Russian Federation for 2024-2026. The parabola equation (including dummy variables), the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model, which takes into account linear trend and additive seasonality, and the ARIMA model were used for this purpose. The study showed that it is difficult to forecast the catch of such fish groups as "tunas and pelamids", "mackerel, mullet", "salmon", "smelt" due to the absence of development trends and cyclical fluctuations in the indicators, which is confirmed by insignificant autocorrelation coefficients of the constructed autocorrelation functions. The article also presents the results of the study of changes in the structures of fish catch in 2023 compared to 2012, as well as changes in the structures of aquatic bioresources extraction by regions of the Russian Federation in 2023 compared to 2014 on the basis of the Gatev coefficient, Salai index and V.M. Ryabtsev index. Fishery is a promising basis for the development of the food industry of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the presence of certain difficulties in the development of fisheries associated with the limitation of international quotas for fishing, as well as with the problems of restoration of fish populations, make the cultivation of fish in aquaculture more profitable compared to the extraction of "wild" fish.

Authors: CHurilova Elvira IUrevna