Modeling the livestock industry to reduce its carbon footprint and meet food safety criteria

Issue № 5, 2024, article № 10, pages 98-107

Language: Russian

Original language title: МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ЭФФЕКТИВНЫХ СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКИХ РЕШЕНИЙ ПО НИЗКОУГЛЕРОДНОЙ ТРАНСФОРМАЦИИ ОТРАСЛЕЙ ЖИВОТНОВОДСТВА

Keywords: LIVESTOCK FARMING, MODELING, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, CLIMATE CHANGE, FOOD SECURITY, REGIONAL SELF-SUFFICIENCY, FOOD CONSUMPTION

Abstract: The modern concept of sustainable development of agri-food systems requires the harmonization of environmental and socio-economic parameters of their functioning in conditions of increasing natural and climatic changes. The challenge of reducing carbon emissions while maintaining sustainable development is particularly challenging in the livestock sector. The goal is to solve the problem of optimizing the structure of livestock industries with a comprehensive assessment of results according to three criteria: economic (revenue from product sales), environmental (carbon footprint from all types of animals), social (integral discrepancy of per capita consumption of meat by type, milk and eggs relative to recommended medical norms). The analysis of the methodology for solving similar problems abroad showed that a large number of studies are devoted to this problem and they are carried out using the method of mathematical modeling of agri-food systems. The model developed by the authors uses the apparatus of nonlinear optimization of the livestock production structure at the national level and has an integrated modular structure. From the conducted model experiments it follows that the reduction in carbon footprint is directly due to a decrease in the number of dairy and beef cattle, as well as sheep and goats, and to a lesser extent affects the pig and poultry meat industries. These negative effects can be mitigated or compensated by improving technology and regulating the quality of the food supply.Solutions to the problem were obtained using a linear convolution of partial quality criteria for the transformation of the sectoral structure of livestock farming: income growth and compliance of consumption with medical standards at a fixed rate of greenhouse gas emissions in carbon equivalent. The multi-criteria nature of the task of low-carbon transformation of livestock farming gives rise to many Pareto-optimal strategic solutions, a significant part of which does not lead to negative effects of a socio-economic nature. Structural changes in livestock farming make it possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions without a critical drop in producers' incomes. Further development of the model is possible by improving its information support and simulation capabilities, introducing a technological factor into the model, including a partial equilibrium module in the markets for livestock products and the emerging market of carbon units in the model.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich, Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna