Factors determining approaches to forecasting food supply in the Russian Federation

Issue № 2, 2024, article № 2, pages 17-24

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: ФАКТОРЫ, ОПРЕДЕЛЯЮЩИЕ ПОДХОДЫ К ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЮ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОГО ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

Keywords: FOOD SUPPLY, FORECASTING, FOOD PRODUCTION, STANDARD OF LIVING OF THE POPULATION, SOCIAL STRATIFICATION, FOOD AVAILABILITY

Abstract: Food supply to the population plays an important role in the socio-economic system of any state. Being one of the basic physiological needs of a person, the provision of an individual with a sufficient amount of consumed food is one of the cornerstones of social well-being, including that subjectively felt by the population. At the same time, it is important to note that at the present stage of technological development, approaches to ensuring the sufficiency of food consumption require revision. On the one hand, the development of the biotechnological industry in many countries makes it possible to significantly increase the total volume of food production and provide people with a quantitatively sufficient and even excess amount of food. At the same time, the use of genetically modified products, trans fats, as well as cheap and low-quality raw materials such as palm oil, etc., creates a situation of significant hidden domestic social stratification. Of course, with the same calorie intake, the difference in the standard of living, social well-being and health of people who consume farm steak made from marbled beef as a source of protein, and those who replace it with cutlets made from cricket paste, will be very noticeable. There is also a significant stratification in the volume and quality of food consumed between states. These circumstances indicate the need to forecast food supply based on an integrated approach, including not only the use of economic and statistical processing of data from previous periods, but also the analysis of other indicators that influence this area. The most significant groups of factors, in our opinion, include: climatic, resource, demographic, technological and international economic. To do this, it is necessary to use foresight analysis, as well as methods for identifying weak signals, joker events and similar techniques. We believe that only a comprehensive analysis of production dynamics, taking into account the designated groups of factors, can give a fairly objective picture of the forecast for the state's food supply.

Authors: Stadnik Anatolii Timofeevich, SHelkovnikov Sergei Aleksandrovich, Obukhov Andrei Aleksandrovich