Forecast Modeling of the Development of Agricultural Sectors Taking Into Account the Impact of Cost Elements

Issue № 6, 2022, article № 9, pages 81-89

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗНОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ РАЗВИТИЯ ОТРАСЛЕЙ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА С УЧЕТОМ ВЛИЯНИЯ ЭЛЕМЕНТОВ ЗАТРАТ

Keywords: FORECASTING, MODELING, BUSINESS MODEL, PRODUCTION FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE, BRANCH OF AGRICULTURE, FACTOR, ELEMENT OF EXPENSES

Abstract: One of the most effective instruments of scientific knowledge for exact reproduction of the expected parameters of activity is expected modeling. The purpose of the presented work is development of methodical approach to forecasting of key production financial performance of functioning of the branches of agriculture of the Russian Federation (RF) taking into account influence of separate elements of costs of production of agrarian products (on the example of the organizations). In article the method of extrapolation of trends for the simplest forecast of the studied indicators, subsequently improved was used. The author's approach to forecasting of production and financial results of functioning of the branches of agriculture based on combination of graphic and correlation and regression ways of the analysis of data for a certain period of time is offered. The formula is developed for definition of a number of expected values of the studied indicators on the example of the agricultural organizations taking into account coefficients of their interrelation with separate elements of costs of production of agrarian products (it is brought mineral, nitrogen fertilizers; it is used means of protection of plants, fuel and lubricants, forages; compensation to workers of livestock production and crop production). By results of the conducted research it was established that the level of profitability of the agricultural organizations of the Russian Federation in 2023 at the simplest forecast will be: on crop production – 6.41%, to livestock production – 5.06%, at the corrected forecast – 6.61 and 5.29% respectively. The revealed differences of the presented indicators confirm the defining influence of the allocated elements of costs of production and financial results of activity of the considered enterprises.

Authors: Bryzgalina Maiia Anatolevna, Bryzgalin Timur Valerevich, Leksina Anna Aleksandrovna