IMPACT OF GROWING CLIMATE CONTRAST ON AGRICULTURE

DOI 10.33305/222-8

Issue № 2, 2022, article № 2, pages 8-17

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: ВЛИЯНИЕ РАСТУЩЕЙ КОНТРАСТНОСТИ КЛИМАТА НА СЕЛЬСКОЕ ХОЗЯЙСТВО

Keywords: CLIMATE CONTRAST, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, PROFITABILITY, VOLUME OF PRODUCTION, VALUE OF OUTPUT, FOREIGN TRADE, FOOD SECURITY, SCENARIO ANALYSIS, VIAPI MODEL

Abstract: The article tests several hypotheses about the impact of climate contrast on Russian agriculture. Scenario analysis is performed with the help of the VIAPI model – acomputable model built on the PF+PE architecture and reproducing partial equilibrium in the wholesale markets of agricultural products located in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Two scenarios of the future climate are compared, which are defined via the spatial location of natural agricultural zones and the level of world food prices. The scenarios differ in the scale of output divergence caused by the conditions of a specific year. In the basic scenario of the future climate, this divergence corresponds to the actual climate contrast in the period 2015–2019, as observed in each natural agricultural zone; in the “contrast” scenario, the divergence is increased. Hypotheses are accepted that a contrasting climate reduces production volumes and the share of open field crop production in gross agricultural production, and leads to an increase in prices. Hypotheses about a decrease in the profitability of agricultural production and an increase in the turnover of agricultural foreign trade are rejected. All the identified effects are too small to entail development of compensatory adjustments in agricultural policy at the federal level.

Authors: Svetlov Nikolai Mikhailovich