Assessment of the risks of impaired economic accessibility of meat and meat products in low-shower groups due to climatic dynamics factors

Issue № 9, 2021, article № 3, pages 23-31

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОЦЕНКА РИСКОВ НАРУШЕНИЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ДОСТУПНОСТИ МЯСА И МЯСОПРОДУКТОВ У ГРУПП НАСЕЛЕНИЯ С НИЗКИМИ ДУШЕВЫМИ ДОХОДАМИ В СВЯЗИ С ФАКТОРАМИ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКОЙ ДИНАМИКИ

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, CLIMATE, MODEL, ADAPTATION, GOVERNMENT REGULATION

Abstract: The article discusses topical issues of assessing the risks of the impact of climate change on the economic availability of the most expensive food products in the modern diet for the poorest segments of the population, which is currently one of the most alarming problems in the world scientific community. The model of the impact of climatic changes on the productivity of agricultural crops, which form the basis of the forage ration, presented in the article, makes it possible to predict the productivity of these crops. Of particular interest are the simulation calculations performed by the authors using the Monte Carlo method, based on probabilistic distributions of random factors, which make it possible to draw conclusions about the level of possible risks of economic affordability of meat and meat products for the poorest population of Russia in terms of income.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich, Romanenko Irina Anatolevna, Evdokimova Natalia Egorovna