FORECAST OF LABOR RESOURCES IN RURAL AREAS OF THE REGION
Issue № 8, 2021, article № 2, pages 8-14
Section: Management and staffing
Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ ТРУДОВЫХ РЕСУРСОВ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ РЕГИОНА
Abstract: The article discusses the problems of reproduction of the labor resources of the rural areas at the regional level, which affects their quantitative and qualitative characteristics. These problems are caused by a combination of economic, demographic, social and institutional factors. Based on the analysis carried out, authors present the most important modern problems of the reproduction of the labor resources of the region’s rural areas. The listed problems necessitate forecasting the reproduction of the labor resources of the rural areas as the basis for making management decisions in the field of regulation of the rural labor market and strategic planning of the development of rural areas. Proceeding from the fact that the main indicator of the state of the system of reproduction of the labor resources is employment, the article presents a forecast of the creation of new jobs in the countryside. The forecast is based on inertial, presupposing the retention of current trends, and innovative, based on the assumption of centralized goal-setting and planning of socio-economic development of the region’s rural areas, options. The forecast of possible quantitative imbalances between labor demand and labor supply in rural areas shows that both development options imply a shortage of labor resources in the rural economy of the Novosibirsk region. First of all, this will affect qualified specialists and representatives of non-agricultural professions. It is concluded that, even despite the increase in labor productivity, the rural areas of the regions of the Siberian Federal District will experience a shortage of personnel, which will reduce the pace of development. In this regard, state regulation of the rural labor market is necessary to bring its structure in line with the goals and objectives of the strategy for the development of rural areas of the region.