FOREIGN TRADE INDICATORS ARE AS INDICATORS OF FOOD SECURITY (INTERNATIONAL APPROACH AND RUSSIAN PRACTICE)
Issue № 11, 2020, article № 10, pages 100-109
Section: ABROAD
Language: Russian
Original language title: ПОКАЗАТЕЛИ ВНЕШНЕЙ ТОРГОВЛИ КАК ИНДИКАТОРЫ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ (МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЙ ПОДХОД И РОССИЙСКАЯ ПРАКТИКА)
Keywords: FOOD SECURITY, FOOD INDEPENDENCE, FOOD SELF-SUFFICIENCY, INDICATORS
Abstract: With the introduction of the new Food Security Doctrine in 2020, the criteria for its assessment have changed - the level of food independence has given way to the level of food self-sufficiency. At the same time, both the first and second criteria are known in the practice of analyzing foreign trade - they are derived from the level of dependence on imports and the ratio of net exports to consumption. Such a transition reflects a change in the model of agricultural development - from overcoming import dependence to export orientation. The aim of the present study is to attempt to address a number of methodological problems arising from the use of self-reliance as a criterion for food security. The first problem is the need to reflect intra-industry trade in assessing self-reliance. The proposed solution is to factorize the corresponding indicator into elements that characterize the level of food independence and the contribution of exports to production. The practical effect of the proposed model was to prove that the self-sustainment thresholds established in the Doctrine were not related to the export volume of specific products and did not take into account the planned objectives of the federal project "Export of agro-industrial products." The second problem is the potential unreasonable increase in self-sufficiency in replacing consumption with export. As a solution to the problem, a factor model is proposed, based on the use of sustainable consumption standards, taking into account its endowment with domestic resources and the contribution of exports to production. The use of the model showed that, despite the increase in the level of self-sufficiency in vegetable oil and fish, there was an increase in the relative volume of imports for these products, and an additional decrease in consumption for fish. A third problem relates to the aggregation of self-sufficiency by product into an overall level of food security. A formula is proposed for calculating it as an average level weighted by the structure of household consumer spending.
Authors: Ternovskii Denis Sergeevich, Uzun Valerii IAkimovich