Яндекс.Метрика

THE APPROACHES TO FORECASTING FOOD CONSUMPTION BY THE RUSSIAN POPULATION


DOI 10.33305/201-4

Issue № 1, 2020, article № 1, pages 4-15

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: О ПОДХОДАХ К ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЮ ПОТРЕБЛЕНИЯ ПРОДУКТОВ ПИТАНИЯ НАСЕЛЕНИЕМ РОССИИ

Keywords: CONSUMPTION, EFFECTIVE DEMAND, FOOD SECURITY, AGRICULTURAL POLICY, ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL, AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, CONSUMPTION MODEL, EXPORT

Abstract: The existing economic and mathematical models of industrial development and the proportions of development of the agro-industrial complex did not sufficiently take into account macroeconomic factors. The article considers the model of long-term development of industries, which optimizes material and cost proportions of agro-industrial complex at the level of the country according to the criterion of maximization of food consumption by the population of Russia. The model includes a system of linear equations: resource and product balances, material and cost and reproduction balances. On the basis of the calculated volumes of production according to the basic model, a separate linear model determined the possible volumes of consumption by decile groups of the population and the volumes of food exports for 2030, taking into account the solvent demand within the country. The work analysed macroeconomic indicators of production and consumption; Trends in food consumption by country as a whole and by decile group (value and in kind); Dependence of consumption on the dynamics of real-disposable incomes of the population and other factors have been identified. The forecast of consumption and exports for 2030 is presented in two scenarios: the first - in conditions of growth of consumption per capita in accordance with the basic scenario of Russia, the second - while maintaining current trends in income and consumption. Conclusions were drawn on the possibility of achieving internal consumption according to rational standards and meeting the tasks of exporting products of the agro-industrial complex.

Authors: Serkov Aleksandr Fedorovich, CHekalin Viacheslav Sergeevich, KHarina Marina Viacheslavovna