Achieving milk threshold of food security doctrine: forecast, factors and risks

DOI 10.33305/1912-38

Issue № 12, 2019, article № 4, pages 38-50

Language: Russian

Original language title: ДОСТИЖЕНИЕ ПОРОГОВЫХ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ ДОКТРИНЫ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ ПО МОЛОКУ: ПРОГНОЗ, ФАКТОРЫ И РИСКИ

Keywords: FOOD SECURITY, MILK PRODUCTION, FORECAST, GOVERNMENT SUPPORT, INVESTMENT

Abstract: There was a slight increase in gross milk production in Russia in 2017, while its decline continued from the beginning of the 90s. Dynamic industry development in farms and increase in production volumes at agricultural enterprises based on the commissioning of a large number of mega complexes and the growth of milk productivity ensured an increase in total milk production despite a continuing decrease in number of cows and milk production in households. However, the milk threshold values of the food security Doctrine remain unfulfilled and, according to our estimates, will be achieved no earlier than in eight years, and if the level of milk consumption per capita is restored - 14 years. Steady and dynamic growth in milk production is possible with the active introduction of highly productive and labour-saving technologies by most industry participants. Implementation of mega projects by a limited number of large milk producers doesn’t ensure the steady growth of industry output at the necessary level. Further stable growth in milk production requires adjusting the forms of government support for the industry: expanding access to preferential investment lending to most milk producers regardless of production size and type of management, extending to the federal level subsidizing the purchase of machinery and equipment for dairy farming and fodder production.

Authors: Surovtsev Vladimir Nikolaevich, Nikulina IUliia Nikolaevna, Paiurova Elena Nikolaevna