Assessment of the effects of parameter changes in the grain dampener: scenario analysis based on a partial equilibrium model

Issue № 9, 2026, article № 6, pages 43-54

Section: Economic mechanism of managing

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОЦЕНКА РЕЗУЛЬТАТОВ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ ПАРАМЕТРОВ ЗЕРНОВОГО ДЕМПФЕРА: СЦЕНАРНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ НА ОСНОВЕ МОДЕЛИ ЧАСТИЧНОГО РАВНОВЕСИЯ

Keywords: GRAIN DAMPENER, EXPORT DUTY, PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, WHEAT MARKET, SCENARIO ANALYSIS, DOMESTIC PRICES, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, REGULATORY IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Abstract: Russia's grain dampener mechanism – combining a floating export duty on grain with producer subsidies – has been in operation since 2021 as a tool for insulating domestic food markets from world price volatility. Between 2022 and 2024, the mechanism's key parameter – the first base price, which determines the duty threshold – was revised upward on three occasions. This article quantitatively evaluates the consequences of each revision using an original partial equilibrium model. The model covers the wheat market (production, domestic consumption, and exports), the derived markets for bread products and meat, and the effects on the balance of payments and budget revenues. The novelty of the approach lies in the explicit parameterization of the export duty structure, the endogenous feedback from Russian exports to world prices, and the linkage between the grain and consumer markets through input-output coefficients. The results show that each base-price increase raised domestic wheat producer prices by 6–12%, stimulated output growth of 1.2–2.2%, and boosted exports by 2.5–4.7% relative to the counterfactual of no policy change. Effects on retail bread and meat prices and on the consumer price index were modest, with CPI changes not exceeding 0.1 percentage points. At the same time, the reduction in the duty rate led to a substantial fall in customs revenues (from –15% to –38%), indicating that the state budget is the primary source financing the redistribution of benefits toward producers. The findings support evidence-based regulatory impact assessment for future revisions of similar instruments.

Authors: Ternovskii Denis Sergeevich