Assessment of the probability of misstatements of the accounts of livestock organizations using a combined approach

Issue № 9, 2026, article № 4, pages 28-36

Section: Economic mechanism of managing

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОЦЕНКА ВЕРОЯТНОСТИ ИСКАЖЕНИЙ БУХГАЛТЕРСКОЙ ОТЧЕТНОСТИ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЙ ЖИВОТНОВОДСТВА С ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕМ КОМБИНИРОВАННОГО ПОДХОДА

Keywords: REPORTING DISTORTION, FINANCIAL STATEMENTS, BENISHA MODEL, ROKSAS MODEL, SAFONOVA MODEL, ANIMAL HUSBANDRY, OKVED, FINANCIAL COEFFICIENTS, DATA ANALYSIS

Abstract: The article addresses the problem of assessing the probability of financial statement distortions in livestock enterprises using a comparative methodological framework. The empirical base includes financial reporting data obtained from the SPARK database for the period 2021–2025. The study applies Russian-adapted versions of well-known fraud detection models, including the Beneish model and the Roxas model, as well as the integral approach based on the Safonova model. In addition, an original model is proposed, focusing on the internal consistency of financial indicators and incorporating industry-specific characteristics of livestock production. The results indicate that traditional index-based models demonstrate higher sensitivity and generate a broader risk zone, while integral and author-developed approaches provide a more refined interpretation of potential distortions. The highest concentration of risk signals is observed in the poultry sector, which is associated with high volatility of financial indicators. It is argued that a combined methodological approach improves analytical robustness and allows for identifying entities whose financial statements require deeper examination.

Authors: Moshchenko Oksana Viktorovna