The impact of integrated sustainable development of rural areas on agricultural performance: analysis and forecasting

Issue № 5, 2026, article № 13, pages 96-108

Section: Development of rural territories

Language: Russian

Original language title: ВЛИЯНИЕ КОМПЛЕКСНОГО УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ НА РЕЗУЛЬТАТИВНОСТЬ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА: АНАЛИЗ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, RURAL AREAS, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, NORTH CAUCASUS ECONOMIC REGION, FORECASTING

Abstract: The article examines the impact of integrated socio-ecological-economic sustainable development of rural areas on the agricultural performance of the North Caucasus economic region. The relevance of the study is due to the high importance of the agricultural sector in the economy of the macroregion, a significant share of the rural population and pronounced territorial heterogeneity of the socio-economic and environmental conditions of development. The objective of the study is to identify and quantify the dependence of agricultural performance on the level of sustainable development of rural areas based on correlation and regression analysis. The methodological tools include minimax normalization, the formation of integral indices, descriptive statistics methods, correlation and multiple regression analysis, and scenario forecasting. The volume of agricultural production, investments in fixed capital of agriculture and the financial result of crop and livestock organizations were used as performance indicators. Factor variables are grouped into social, economic and environmental blocks of sustainable development of rural areas. Based on the normalized data, integral indices of the performance of the agro-industrial complex and sustainable development of rural areas were formed. The study results revealed a strong positive correlation between the agro-industrial performance index and the economic index (r = 0.898), as well as the social index (r = 0.885), while the environmental index was negatively correlated with agricultural performance (r=–0.636). The constructed regression model has high explanatory power (R²=0.833; F= 9.969) and confirms that the economic component of sustainable development has the greatest impact on agricultural performance. Forecast calculations up to 2030 under the inertial and factor scenarios indicate continued positive dynamics in the agro-industrial complex's performance. The obtained results can be used in developing regional agricultural policy strategies and mechanisms for sustainable rural development.

Authors: Kashchaev Igor Valentinovich