Improving Russia's food security system

Issue № 5, 2026, article № 1, pages 3-10

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: СОВЕРШЕНСТВОВАНИЕ СИСТЕМЫ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ РОССИИ

Keywords: FOOD SECURITY, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, SYSTEM, METHODOLOGY, INTEGRAL INDEX

Abstract: This article explores an improved methodology for sequentially processing statistical information, allowing for the description of the state of the food system across a number of key parameters, resulting in the calculation of a final integrated index of regional food security. The proposed methodology combines expert and statistical research approaches, improving the accuracy and reliability of the assessment. An analysis of statistical bulletins from the Federal State Statistics Service was conducted for the period from 2015 to 2023, covering the following indicators: production, affordability, food quality, infrastructure and logistics, and sustainability. Positive trends in self-sufficiency rates for basic foodstuffs were identified: 149% for grain, 102% for meat, 138% for fish, and 252% for vegetable oils. A comparative analysis of food security levels in Russia's regions was conducted using the proposed methodology. According to the data obtained during the pilot study, Rostov Oblast, as a producer region, demonstrates outstanding results in terms of gross indicators, but the final ranking was adjusted (downgraded) due to imbalances in other areas of the system. Rostov Oblast is constrained by factors such as a household expenditure share on food exceeding 30% and a persistent shortage of logistics capacity, indicating structural imbalances. The proposed model can be further supplemented with a forecasting module to account for the sustainability of the food system. The results obtained prove that scenario modeling based on the proposed approach makes it possible to identify the "bottlenecks" of the food system at the regional level and allocate resources in a targeted manner, focusing not only on increasing gross output, but also on reducing logistical losses, as well as increasing the real solvency of the population.

Authors: Sorokina IUliia Vitalevna, Vasilenko ZHanna Andreevna, Abulmuslimov Zaur SHamilovich, Vakhidov Gamid KHeirulla