Futures contracts as a tool for forecasting government interventions in the domestic grain market

Issue № 7, 2026, article № 11, pages 114-123

Section: Competition of young authors

Language: Russian

Original language title: ФЬЮЧЕРСНЫЕ КОНТРАКТЫ КАК ИНСТРУМЕНТ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫХ ИНТЕРВЕНЦИЙ НА ВНУТРЕННЕМ ЗЕРНОВОМ РЫНКЕ

Keywords: FUTURES CONTRACTS, FOOD SECURITY, NON-TARIFF REGULATION, GRAIN MARKET INTERVENTIONS, WHEAT, FORECASTING

Abstract: The study proposes models for forecasting wheat prices in the Russian domestic market using futures contract prices and lagged spot prices over time horizons from one to six months. It is established that two-month futures contracts possess the greatest predictive power. The results demonstrate that incorporating futures prices improves the accuracy of forecasting domestic prices compared to a traditional inertial model based solely on past-period data. On this basis, a two-factor model for forecasting domestic wheat prices is proposed, and the necessary statistical characteristics confirming the significance of the model coefficients and its overall efficiency are presented. At the next stage, a probabilistic model is developed to forecast changes in future prices relative to threshold levels established for the intervention fund. This approach enables the timely identification of signals indicating a potential need for procurement or commodity interventions within the framework of price monitoring. A mechanism for integrating the probabilistic model into the implementation of state grain interventions (both procurement and commodity) is proposed. This makes it possible to shift from reactive to proactive price monitoring, thereby reducing the risks of price volatility in the domestic market, which in turn contributes to strengthening national food security.

Authors: Drozdov Ilia Sergeevich