Assessment methodology and institutional mechanisms of ensuring food security in Russia under sanctions pressure

Issue № 7, 2026, article № 1, pages 3-17

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ ОЦЕНКИ И ИНСТИТУЦИОНАЛЬНЫЕ МЕХАНИЗМЫ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ РОССИИ В УСЛОВИЯХ САНКЦИОННОГО ДАВЛЕНИЯ

Keywords: FOOD SECURITY, DISCURSIVE DESIGN, INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISMS, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, SANCTIONS, AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

Abstract: Based on the analysis, institutional theory, and economic statistics, the article identifies a persistent structural discrepancy between the narratives of self-sufficiency and the actual outcomes of Russia's agricultural development. It is concluded that import substitution in critical segments (plant protection products and seed production) is often replaced by a reorientation of import flows from Western to Eastern suppliers, which occurs while maintaining a high degree of technological dependence and does not solve the problem of ensuring sovereignty in the agro-industrial complex. An analysis of the institutional mechanisms of state support revealed their instability, manifested in uneven financing, persistent departmental fragmentation, and increased regional disparities, especially in terms of access to credit resources and investments. Based on a comparative analysis of the adaptation strategies of foreign countries facing long-term sanctions regimes, systemic limitations and universal elements of successful adaptation were identified, including the diversification of external relations and targeted support. Using the authors' method of integral assessment of food security, the corresponding index was calculated, demonstrating a high level of production sufficiency while simultaneously reducing the economic availability of food for the population. It is substantiated that the continuation of current trends may lead to the system's transition into a risk zone, which is reflected in the proposed dynamic model of the «point of no return». In conclusion, the paper proposes directions for adjusting public policy, including concentrating resources on the development of critical technologies, strengthening social protection mechanisms, and deepening Eurasian cooperation as an alternative to dependence on a single supplier.

Authors: Glushak Nikolai Vladimirovich, Katkov IUrii Nikolaevich, Sopilko Natalia IUrevna, Romanova Anastasiia Alekseevna