Transformation of global wine production in the 21st century: structural crisis or a natural stage of premiumization?.

Issue № 6, 2026, article № 13, pages 123-130

Section: ABROAD

Language: Russian

Original language title: ТРАНСФОРМАЦИЯ МИРОВОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ВИНА В XXI ВЕКЕ: СТРУКТУРНЫЙ КРИЗИС ИЛИ ЗАКОНОМЕРНЫЙ ЭТАП ПРЕМИАЛИЗАЦИИ?

Keywords: OIV, CAGR, WINE PRODUCTION, OLD WORLD, NEW WORLD, RUSSIA, PREMIUMIZATION, PREMIUMIZATION INDEX, VITICULTURE, PRODUCTION DYNAMICS, VOLATILITY

Abstract: The article analyses the dynamics of global wine production in the first quarter of the 21st century (2000–2024). Based on statistical data from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) and national statistical agencies, it examines changes in production volumes and vineyard areas across Old World and New World countries. A sustained decline in global wine production (–15.5% over 25 years) is observed alongside a simultaneous increase in its market value, supporting the hypothesis of a structural transformation towards industry-wide premiumization. A novel export premiumization index is introduced to quantitatively assess countries positioning across price segments. Special attention is given to Russia - the only major wine-producing country demonstrating consistent growth in production (+75.9%) and vineyard areas (+53.1%) against the backdrop of a global downturn. Comparative analysis reveals that, unlike export-oriented models, Russia's development vector focuses on saturating the domestic market with high value-added products, supported by state import substitution programs. Core hypothesis: The observed contraction in global wine production does not signify a crisis but rather a natural stage of transitioning from mass-market products to a high-value-added model. In this context, Russia occupies a unique position, advancing counter-cyclically through intensive growth factors.

Authors: Girshevich Olga Lvovna