Modeling the forecast dynamics of dairy industry indicators in regional food systems

Issue № 6, 2026, article № 9, pages 86-94

Language: Russian

Original language title: МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ПРОГНОЗНОЙ ДИНАМИКИ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ МОЛОЧНОЙ ОТРАСЛИ В РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫХ СИСТЕМАХ

Keywords: DAIRY FARMING, HERD FORECAST, MODELING, FOOD SECURITY DOCTRINE STANDARDS, GOVERNMENT REGULATION STRATEGIES

Abstract: Analysis of the current state and forecasting the prospects of the dairy industry is a pressing scientific problem. In this paper, a modeling tool for long-term forecasting of the dynamics of the dairy cow population on farms of all categories is developed. Based on the available herd statistics, a model of the turnover of the main herd at the regional level is identified, estimates of the culling and replacement parameters as values minimizing the discrepancy between the actual and theoretical values of the herd are obtained, empirical laws for the distribution of regions by gradations of the values of these parameters are obtained. A long-term forecast of the dynamics of the dairy cow population for the Russian Federation is given under the assumption of an inertial scenario for the development of the industry. A regression model is obtained on panel data linking the number of dairy cows with such factors as annual milk yield, production costs and the selling price of milk, the size of the rural population and the area of forage lands. The model was used in a series of simulation experiments to identify effective strategies for developing the dairy industry and formulate appropriate elements of agricultural policy aimed at stimulating targeted changes in these factors. The effectiveness of all virtual strategies formed by combining standardized impacts on these factors was assessed. A number of strategies were identified whose implementation is capable of meeting the requirements of the Food Security Doctrine, both under positive and negative growth rates of the dairy herd. A "minimum impact" strategy was considered, which involves identifying the factors that have the greatest impact on industry development and minimizing the rate of change while meeting the standard milk self-sufficiency values in line with the Food Security Doctrine.

Authors: Siptits Stanislav Ottovich