Development and application of a macroeconomic model for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production diversification in Krasnodar Region

Issue № 4, 2026, article № 14, pages 149-153

Section: Competition of young authors

Language: Russian

Original language title: РАЗРАБОТКА И ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕ МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ МОДЕЛИ ДЛЯ ОЦЕНКИ ВЛИЯНИЯ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ КЛИМАТА НА ДИВЕРСИФИКАЦИЮ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА В КРАСНОДАРСКОМ КРАЕ

Keywords: AD–AS, IS-LM, DSGE-МОДЕЛИ, CLIMATE CHANGE, CROP PRODUCTION DIVERSIFICATION, KRASNODAR REGION, MACROECONOMIC MODELING, KEYNESIAN MODEL, CIRCULAR FLOWS OF INCOME AND EXPENDITURE, INPUT-OUTPUT BALANCE, STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION, DSGE-MODELS, ECONOMETRIC MODELS, RISK ASSESSMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS, REGIONAL RESILIENCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, FOOD SECURITY

Abstract: This article is devoted to developing and implementing an integrated macroeconomic model aimed at analyzing the impact of climate change on crop production diversification in the Krasnodar region. The study's relevance stems from global climate shifts that create both unique opportunities for expanding the range of cultivated crops and significant threats due to frequent extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and temperature fluctuations. The objective of this research is to develop a scientifically grounded methodology for assessing economic consequences of climatic changes and creating tools for decision-making in response to emerging challenges. Methodologically, the study relies on modern macroeconomic approaches including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE), input-output analysis (I-O), structural vector autoregressions (SVAR), and multifactor econometric models. Special attention is given to processing real-world climate and economic data provided by the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Rosgidromet) and the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). These macroeconomic instruments allow constructing realistic scenarios for regional economic development, calculating sensitivity indices for specific industries exposed to climate factors, and proposing effective adaptation measures and optimization strategies for agricultural production structure. The paper aims to formulate an efficient adaptive management strategy for agriculture ensuring sustainable economic growth and enhanced food security in the Krasnodar region under changing climatic conditions. The findings are highly relevant for governmental bodies, businesses, and academic circles interested in shaping strategic directions for the agrarian sector’s development over the next decades.

Authors: Ershov Denis Ivanovich