Methodological approach to assessing the technological sovereignty of the agro-industrial complex of Russia based on intersectoral analysis

Issue № 4, 2026, article № 5, pages 44-54

Section: Economic mechanism of managing

Language: Russian

Original language title: МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЙ ПОДХОД К ОЦЕНКЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО СУВЕРЕНИТЕТА АГРОПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО КОМПЛЕКСА РОССИИ НА ОСНОВЕ МЕЖОТРАСЛЕВОГО АНАЛИЗА

Keywords: TECHNOLOGICAL SOVEREIGNTY, AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS, INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL, IMPORT DEPENDENCY, SANCTIONS RISKS, FOREIGN TRADE SHOCKS, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION

Abstract: The intensification of sanctions pressure and the growth of foreign trade restrictions increase the vulnerability of the Russian agro-industrial complex (AIC). This necessitates a quantitative assessment of technological sovereignty, considering the complex inter-industry linkages and high import dependence in a number of key segments. The aim of the study is to develop a methodological approach for assessing the AIC's technological sovereignty based on input-output analysis. This approach allows for identifying vulnerable elements of production chains and evaluating the resilience of final consumption to external shocks. The methodology employs an input-output table with explicit accounting for imports. A matrix of output sensitivity to changes in imports was constructed, and a system of quantitative indicators was developed, including intra-industry import dependency, sensitivity of industries to a general import restriction, and the impact of specific imported products on the aggregate output of the AIC. Scenario modeling of import reduction and production increase was conducted. To assess technological sovereignty, intra-industry import dependency was evaluated. The highest values of this relative indicator were found in the production of agricultural raw materials, the tobacco industry, the production of oils and fats, and dairy products. The highest sensitivity to a general import restriction is characteristic of agriculture, the oil and fat sector, meat products, and feed. Scenario modeling revealed that a 10% reduction in imports without an increase in domestic production reduces final consumption by up to –5.74% (processed vegetables and fruits), –3.01% (feed), and –2.62% (oils and fats). A 5% increase in domestic output compensates for the decline in a number of segments; however, technologically complex industries remain vulnerable. The proposed methodology enables the identification of critical vulnerability points within the AIC, provides a quantitative assessment of risks to technological sovereignty, and forms evidence-based priorities for import substitution and state support for the agro-industrial complex.

Authors: Ten Anatolii Dmitrievich, Korovin Grigorii Borisovich