Modeling the impact of labor resource availability on the dynamics of the agro-industrial complex

Issue № 2, 2026, article № 10, pages 100-107

Language: Russian

Original language title: МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ ОБЕСПЕЧЕННОСТИ ТРУДОВЫМИ РЕСУРСАМИ НА ДИНАМИКУ АГРОПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО КОМПЛЕКСА

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, LABOR RESOURCES, AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, MODELING

Abstract: The aim of the study is to econometrically model the dependence of the agricultural sector's gross regional product (GRP) on a number of factors related to labor potential. The data base consisted of official data from Rosstat and Rostovstat for the period from 2010 to 2024. The methodological basis was a multivariate linear regression, where the dependent variable was GRP for the "Agriculture" activity type, and the explanatory variables were the number of employees, the share of workers with higher education, the share of youth in rural areas, the volume of investment in fixed assets, and the area under cultivation. The modeling results revealed statistically significant and multidirectional influences across these factors. It was found that the greatest positive impact on the dynamics of the agro-industrial complex is exerted by improved workforce qualifications: a one-point increase in the share of workers with higher education leads to a 52 million ruble increase in GRP. A positive, but less pronounced, effect was recorded for employment and investment volumes. The most significant finding is the negative impact of the youth population, which is interpreted as a consequence of selective migration and a structural mismatch between the competencies of young workers and the needs of the high-tech agro-industrial complex. The scientific novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive consideration of quantitative and qualitative labor characteristics and the development of an integrated approach to assessing HR risks. The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that the obtained results substantiate the need to reorient regional agricultural policy from compensating for the demographic deficit to stimulating the educational and innovative potential of human resources.

Authors: Sorokina IUliia Vitalevna, Malinina Olga IUrevna