The influence of the key rate on the financing of the optimal capital structure using the example of russian agricultural holdings

Issue № 3, 2025, article № 7, pages 66-73

Section: Economic mechanism of managing

Language: Russian

Original language title: ВЛИЯНИЕ КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКИ НА ФИНАНСИРОВАНИЕ ОПТИМАЛЬНОЙ СТРУКТУРЫ КАПИТАЛА НА ПРИМЕРЕ АГРОХОЛДИНГОВ РОССИИ

Keywords: IPO, SPO, FPO, KEY RATE, AGROHOLDING, BONDS, LOANS, EQUITY, ISSUE, SHARES

Abstract: The aim of the work is to clarify the impact of the key rate on the formation of the optimal capital structure of Russian agricultural holdings. A significant increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia in 2023 - 2024 made it possible to prove the validity of the capital structure optimization model, including for agricultural holdings, which is based on the average statistical values of the profitability of their assets and equity. Considering that the average statistical return on assets of an agricultural holding in Russia does not exceed 8%, and the return on equity is 19.5%, it makes sense for such entities to issue bonds as long as the key rate is less than 8%. If the key rate exceeds this threshold, it makes sense for the average agricultural holding to issue its shares as long as the key rate does not exceed 19.5%. When the regulator's key rate exceeds the specified value, it makes sense for agroholdings to issue shares if investors are willing to pay 1:1 to the book value or higher for some reason. The model for optimizing the capital structure of an agroholding is based on the following conditions: 1) the higher the key rate, the higher the level of economic feasibility of issuing shares compared to issuing bonds (using bank loans) until such rate exceeds the value of return on equity; 2) the higher the key rate, the lower the possible price of placing shares in IPO, SPO and FPO; 3) with an unchanged key rate and return on assets, FPO reduces the price of shares; 4) in matters of optimizing the capital structure, the behavior of an agroholding is similar to other domestic public companies. Using the example of the dynamics of the Russian stock market in 2023-2024, we can conclude that the boom in IPOs, SPOs and FPOs of Russian public companies occurred when the key rate began to rise and remained at 16% for a certain period of time. A further increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia created conditions for a decrease in the intensity of IPOs, SPOs and FPOs. In order to implement the possibility of issuing shares at book value and above with a key rate of more than 19.5%, the average agricultural holding must be identified by investors as a growth company, that is, ensure an annual stable increase in revenue and profit at a rate exceeding inflation. Given the objective limitations of additional share issues, agricultural organizations should primarily focus on borrowed capital for regular and systematic capital raising. It is possible to counteract the growth of the key rate in the process of using borrowed capital by maximizing the return on assets or relying on the effect of scale of production (operating leverage).

Authors: Morhachov Ilia Viktorovich, SHevchenko Mariia Nikolaevna, Listopadova IUliia Vladimirovna, Panova Natalia Sergeevna