Cheese production in the Russian Federation: trend analysis and forecasts

Issue № 11, 2024, article № 8, pages 72-79

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОИЗВОДСТВО СЫРНЫХ ПРОДУКТОВ В РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ: ТЕНДЕНЦИЙ И ПРОГНОЗЫ

Keywords: CHEESE PRODUCTION, FOOD PRODUCTION FORECASTING, SARIMA MODELS, WINTERS MODELS

Abstract: The analysis of food production is an important analytical task of modern economic science and practice, the relevance of which is increasing over time, especially in the context of economic sanctions against the Russian Federation and the economic embargo imposed in response to them in 2014. The logical conclusion of the analysis is the forecasting of future production volumes. This article presents the results of a study of the production of cheese and milk-containing products with milk fat substitutes produced using cheese technology. The study is based on official monthly data from Rosstat from 2017 to 2023. Production forecasts refer to the monthly periods 2024-2026. The forecast models were Winters and SARIMA, taking into account seasonality, with an approximation error of 2-7%. According to them, if the trends of 2017-2023 remain the same, the total production of cheese products in 2024 will reach 1090.9 thousand tons, in 2025 - 1192.8 thousand tons, in 2026 - 1267 thousand tons. Such a development of production is able to fully meet the domestic needs of the country, with the exception of the production of "gourmet cheeses", which is just beginning to develop in Russia.

Authors: CHurilova Elvira IUrevna