Russia's agriculture under foreign trade restrictions: modeling crisis scenarios

Issue № 6, 2024, article № 4, pages 32-41

Section: Economic mechanism of managing

Language: Russian

Original language title: СЕЛЬСКОЕ ХОЗЯЙСТВО РОССИИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ВНЕШНЕТОРГОВЫХ ОГРАНИЧЕНИЙ: МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ КРИЗИСНЫХ СЦЕНАРИЕВ

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, AGRO–INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, FOREIGN TRADE BARRIERS, SANCTIONS, SCENARIO ANALYSIS, PRICES, EXPORT, IMPORT, CASH FLOWS

Abstract: The consequences of the most crisis scenarios for the development of Russian agriculture in the conditions of obstacles to foreign trade from a number of foreign countries are studied. For this purpose, crisis scenarios are formulated, scenario modeling of production volumes, trade, prices and financial results of Russian agriculture is carried out under scenario conditions, and directions for minimizing risks associated with a probable increase in foreign trade restrictions are substantiated. It is established that on a horizon of 1–2 years, the main threat to the development of Russian agriculture within the framework of the studied scenarios is represented by barriers to exports, while the effect of reducing imports of agricultural machinery in the short term is not so dangerous. However, both of these effects tend to accumulate over time: in the absence of compensating counteractions, their negative impact on agriculture will increase. A decrease in exports leads to a drop in cash inflows from producers at a rate that exceeds the reduction in outflows, which can undermine the agricultural economy. The reorientation of resources for import substitution is complicated by the fall in domestic food prices and the specificity of assets. A reduction in the supply of agricultural machinery leads to a decrease in the volume of agricultural production and an increase in its prices. In this case, the incoming and outgoing cash flows of agricultural producers change downward proportionally, which allows agriculture to support the financing of current production costs and previously started projects. The combination of reducing imports of resources and barriers to exports leads to the mutual absorption of their negative impact on the welfare of domestic consumers, but not on the financial situation of agricultural producers.

Authors: Svetlov Nikolai Mikhailovich, Ternovskii Denis Sergeevich