Substantiation of the forecast parameters of cattle breeding development in the amur region

Issue № 2, 2018, article № 6, pages 45-54

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОБОСНОВАНИЕ ПРОГНОЗНЫХ ПАРАМЕТРОВ РАЗВИТИЯ СКОТОВОДСТВА АМУРСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Keywords: CATTLE BREEDING, PROGNOSIS, DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURAL ORGANIZATIONS, PEASANT (FARM) FARMS, HOUSEHOLDS, AMUR REGION

Abstract: The study of the prospects for the development of livestock breeding in the regional scale should be based on an assessment of the trends in the change in the number of cattle in farms of different categories and the justification of the size of a herd of cattle. Given the limited number of agricultural organizations developing cattle breeding, it is proposed to develop a regional program for their development, in which it is necessary to justify the economic feasibility of keeping a livestock in each of them, taking into account the prospects for their possible reconstruction and their social significance for specific rural settlements. Significant differentiation of peasant (farm) farms and individual entrepreneurs by the number of cattle necessitates the development of various group strategies for their development. There is a steady tendency to reduce the number of cattle in private households with the growth of its concentration. According to the forecast calculations in agricultural organizations of the Amur Region with a herd of more than 500 animals by 2025, 96,5‰ of the total number of livestock in farms of this category will be concentrated. According to peasant (farmer) households, the projected increase in the number of cattle by 2025 is expected at 1300 head. Reduction of the number of cattle in the households of the population from 2015 to 2025 is expected from 46600 to 41100 heads. If the current trends in the structure of the herd, the dairy and meat productivity of cattle are preserved in the region, the Amur region will be able to increase the production of both milk and beef in the future.

Authors: Reimer Valerii Viktorovich, Petrova-SHatokhina Tatiana Rudolfovna