The main agricultural products production assessment in Russia in 2024

Issue № 4, 2024, article № 2, pages 13-23

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОЦЕНКА ОБЪЕМОВ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ОСНОВНЫХ ВИДОВ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ В РОССИИ В 2024 ГОДУ

Keywords: FORECAST, CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTION RESULTS OUTCOME, DEGREE OF FAVORABILITY OF THE YEAR, OUTCOME FREQUENCY, WEATHER AND AGRO-TECHNICAL FACTORS, AGRICULTURE

Abstract: The article presents the forecast of the main types of agricultural products production in Russia in 2024, made in line with the methodology developed in Agrarian policy and Agro-industrial complex development department of FSBSI FRC VNIIESH. The main forecast indicators are: areas and agricultural crops yields, livestock and productivity of animals, gross production. As a result of agricultural crops yields analysis from 1980 years onwards, the multidirectional dynamics of yield changes by regions of Russia and types of crops has been established. Favorable years for one agricultural crop are not the same for other ones. In our research the basis for determining the year’s favorability degree was the yield of grain crops, covered over 22% of the gross agricultural output and about 40% of the gross crop production output. Within the framework of the grain yield conditions and production results (outcome of conditions and results), relative indicators of variation and average square deviations are calculated, which were used to predict yield deviations by outcome (favorable, average, unfavorable). A quantitative assessment (probability) of the outcomes occurrence in Russia and in the Russian Federation regions in terms of grain yields has been determined. According to our estimates, in 2024 we should expect the implementation of the average weather year with grain production in the amount of 147 million tons (68% probability), a favorable year - 160 million tons (15%), an unfavorable year - 106 million tons (18%).

Authors: Kolesnikov Andrei Viktorovich, KHarina Marina Viacheslavovna