Forecast of agricultural production volumes by 2035

Issue № 2, 2024, article № 1, pages 3-16

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ ОБЪЕМОВ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ПРОДУКЦИИ СЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВА К 2035 ГОДУ

Keywords: FORECAST, FOOD SECURITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to substantiate the volume of production of the main types of agricultural products to ensure food security of the Russian population by 2035 under the conditions of sanctions restrictions. The forecast was made in accordance with the methodology developed at the Federal State Budgetary Budgetary Institution FNC VNIIEKH, which takes into account a set of factors affecting the production of agricultural products and the provision of food to the population. The impact of a decrease in the supply of imported agricultural machinery on production volumes in crop production and animal husbandry is analyzed. The forecast of production of the main types of agricultural products in crop and livestock production is calculated according to two scenarios: optimistic and pessimistic. An optimistic version of the forecast assumes production of: grain over 152 million tons, sugar beet 50 million tons, sunflower 21 million tons, vegetables 18 million tons, fruits 10 million tons, livestock and poultry in live weight 22 million tons, milk 53 million tons, eggs 56 billion pieces. The pessimistic version of the forecast assumes production of: grain over 122 million tons, sugar beet 47 million tons, sunflower 16 million tons, vegetables 16 million tons, fruits 10 million tons, livestock and poultry in live weight 19 million tons, milk 36 million tons, eggs 56 billion pieces.

Authors: Ushachev Ivan Grigorevich, Kolesnikov Andrei Viktorovich, KHarina Marina Viacheslavovna