Assessment of sustainability of crop industry development

Issue № 5, 2023, article № 10, pages 75-82

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОЦЕНКА УСТОЙЧИВОСТИ РАЗВИТИЯ ОТРАСЛИ РАСТЕНИЕВОДСТВА

Keywords: CROP PRODUCTION, STABILITY, COEFFICIENTS

Abstract: The article considers the author's methodology for assessing the sustainability of the development of the crop industry. The main indicator for the assessment was the yield of agricultural crops as an independent variable correlating with indicators for all types of sustainability. The derived regression equations for selected crops in the Russian Federation show an increase in yield over the analyzed period for all crops except flax-dolgunets. In some regions, there is also a decrease in crop yields. The coefficient of stability of changes is the lowest in the yield of rye and sugar beet. Coefficients characterizing relative oscillability, stability of levels of a number of dynamics, trend stability, stability of changes were calculated. The proposed method will make it possible to calculate the point forecast of crop production production taking into account fluctuations, to determine confidence intervals for calculating the risks of deviations from the trend and safety stock to overcome this risk. To assess the sustainability of the crop industry as a whole, it is possible to use the Hurwitz criterion.

Authors: Lukomets Artem Viacheslavovich