THE MAIN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS PRODUCTION ASSESSMENT IN RUSSIA IN 2023

DOI 10.33305/235-3

Issue № 5, 2023, article № 1, pages 3-11

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОЦЕНКА ОБЪЕМОВ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ОСНОВНЫХ ВИДОВ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ В РОССИИ В 2023 ГОДУ

Keywords: FORECAST, CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTION RESULTS OUTCOME, DEGREE OF FAVORABILITY OF THE YEAR, FREQUENCY OF OUTCOME, WEATHER AND AGROTECHNICAL FACTORS, AGRICULTURE

Abstract: The article presents the forecast of the main types of agricultural products production in Russia in 2023, covered over 80% of the gross agricultural output in value terms. The forecast made in line with the methodology developed in FSBSI FRC VNIIESH, which takes into account random weather and agrotechnical factors: winter cereals crops conditions, the dynamics of plow land plowing, the application of mineral fertilizers, the availability of tractors and combine harvesters. The impact of a decrease in the supply of imported agricultural machinery on crop production in medium terms is analyzed. The crop production forecast was carried out for three scenarios of random factors implementation: favorable, medium, unfavorable. In animal husbandry, one scenario is calculated for an average year. The basis for determining the year favorableness degree was the grain crops yield. According to our estimates, in 2023 we should expect the implementation of an average weather year with grain production in the amount of 128 million tons (73% probability), a favorable year - 140 million tons (17.4%), an unfavorable year - 91 million tons (8.7%).

Authors: Ushachev Ivan Grigorevich, Kolesnikov Andrei Viktorovich, KHarina Marina Viacheslavovna