Яндекс.Метрика

DEVELOPMENT OF THE METHODOLOGICAL APPARATUS FOR PREDICTING THE STATE OF THE INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX


DOI 10.33305/2211-53

Issue № 11, 2022, article № 7, pages 53-60

Section: Economic mechanism of managing

Language: Russian

Original language title: РАЗВИТИЕ МЕТОДОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО АППАРАТА ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ СОСТОЯНИЯ ИНСТИТУЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ СРЕДЫ АПК

Keywords: AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX, METHODOLOGICAL APPARATUS, INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT, INSTITUTIONS, FORECAST, APPROACH, FACTORS, CONDITIONS

Abstract: The article substantiates the need to consider the institutional environment for the functioning of the agro-industrial complex as an independent object of research and forecasting. The authors propose a methodology for predicting the state of the institutional environment of the agro-industrial complex. The features, developed on the basis of a complex of scientific approaches, that need to be taken into account when forming forecasts of the state of the institutional environment of the agrarian sector of the economy, are clarified and presented. The authors propose to update such features constantly, because the conditions for the functioning of agricultural production and management are regularly transformed. Based on the consideration of indicators of self-sufficiency of the Russian Federation with key types of food from 1990 to 2021, a conclusion is made about the nature of the results of the implementation of the state agrarian policy. An analysis of the dynamics of the food security coefficient for the period from 1990 to 2021 made it possible to conclude that there is a correlation between political processes and economic indicators of ensuring food security. The development of the methodological apparatus for forecasting the state of the institutional environment of the agro-industrial complex is presented in the article on the basis of the calculation (2012-2021) and forecast of the values​​(2022-2050) of the quality index of the institutional environment for the functioning of the agro-industrial complex. As part of the formation of forecast scenarios for the functioning of the institutional environment of the agro-industrial complex, the authors propose optimistic and pessimistic) options for the values ​​of the quality index of the institutional environment for the functioning of the agro-industrial complex until 2050. The optimal and ideal values ​​of the considered index are also highlighted.

Authors: Semin Aleksandr Nikolaevich, Kislitskii Mikhail Mikhailovich, Lylov Anton Sergeevich