Economic And Mathematical Modeling As A Tool For Strategic Planning For The Development Of Rural Territories

Issue № 7, 2022, article № 2, pages 11-20

Language: Russian

Original language title: ЭКОНОМИКО-МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ КАК ИНСТРУМЕНТ СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКОГО ПЛАНИРОВАНИЯ РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ

Keywords: RURAL AREAS, STRATEGIC PLANNING, PARAMETERS OF RURAL AREAS DEVELOPMENT, OPTIMIZATION MODEL, VORONEZH REGION, DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS

Abstract: The choice of methods for substantiating the parameters of development of rural areas is an important issue of strategic planning and management, the solution of which should take into account many aspects of their functioning. The purpose of the study is to determine the parameters of sustainable development of rural areas in order to select the most effective tools for managing it. The substantiation of the strategic parameters of complex economic systems is carried out by methods of economic forecasting, which, according to one of the main classification features - the degree of formalization, are divided into intuitive and formalized methods. At the same time, formalized methods include two subgroups: extrapolation methods (methods of least squares, exponential smoothing, moving averages) and modeling methods (structural, network and matrix modeling), which allow obtaining a multicomponent indicator designed to determine the vector of socio-economic development of rural areas in conjunction with dynamic changes in the agricultural sector. To substantiate the strategy for sustainable development of rural areas of the region, we propose to use an economic and mathematical model for optimizing strategic parameters, which, unlike previously known ones, along with optimizing the structure of agricultural production, includes the optimization of other activities in such areas - education, healthcare, culture, social infrastructure , ecology, etc. The goal of agriculture as the foundation of the rural economy is to obtain the maximum amount of profit, at the same time, the goal of the social sphere is to provide rational services to the rural population, moreover, their implementation should take place in conditions of preserving the ecosystem and ecology. The optimality criterion in the economic and mathematical model for optimizing the sectoral structure of production, represented by the maximum profit with a minimum of material and monetary costs, is completely unsuitable for the economic and mathematical model for optimizing the development of rural areas, since the goals of activities in rural areas (agriculture, education healthcare, culture, social infrastructure, ecology, etc.) are different. The article presents the results of solving the model, taking into account scenarios for the development of rural areas of the Voronezh region.

Authors: Agibalov Aleksandr Vladimirovich, Ternovykh Konstantin Semenovich