ASSESSMENT OF PRODUCTION VOLUMES OF THE MAIN TYPES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS FOR 2022

DOI 10.33305/226-17

Issue № 6, 2022, article № 2, pages 17-24

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: ОЦЕНКА ОБЪЕМОВ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА ОСНОВНЫХ ВИДОВ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ НА 2022 ГОД

Keywords: AGRICULTURE, WEATHER AND AGRO TECHNICAL FACTORS, FREQUENCY OF OUTCOME, DEGREE OF FAVOURABILITY OF THE YEAR, FORECAST

Abstract: This article presents the results of calculating the forecast of production volumes of the main types of agricultural products of Russia for 2022 based on the methodology used by the Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution of the Federal Research Center VNIIESX. The forecast includes the main types of agricultural products, which make up over 80% of gross agricultural output in value terms. Along with weather conditions and factors, the forecast of the yield and gross harvest of the main crops (cereals, sunflowers, sugar beets) took into account the influence of agro technical factors: the state of winter crops, the dynamics of plowing of chives, the application of mineral fertilizers, the presence of tractors and combine harvesters. The volume of production in livestock production is based on the dynamics of the number of livestock and productivity over the previous years, the availability of stocks of feed, feed base for the current year. The forecast includes the current trends in the material and technical base of agriculture. It is assumed that there will be no significant changes in agricultural engineering in 2022. The volume of production of grain and other crops (sunflower, sugar beets, potatoes, and vegetables) was estimated for three scenarios - depending on the implementation of random conditions: favourable, medium, unfavourable outcomes. When determining the degree of favourability of the year for other crops, the classification was based on the yield of grain crops, which largely determine the level of production in the agricultural sector of the country. According to our estimates, in 2022 we should expect the implementation of the average weather conditions of the year with grain production volumes of about 119 million tons (77% probability of onset), favourable - more than 133 million tons (14%), unfavourable - 82 million tons (9%).

Authors: Kolesnikov Andrei Viktorovich, KHarina Marina Viacheslavovna