Building a multifactor model of the export price for Russian food wheat

Issue № 2, 2022, article № 11, pages 81-85

Section: Competition of young authors

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПОСТРОЕНИЕ МНОГОФАКТОРНОЙ МОДЕЛИ ЭКСПОРТНОЙ ЦЕНЫ НА РОССИЙСКУЮ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННУЮ ПШЕНИЦУ

Keywords: MULTIVARIATE MODEL, MARKET PRICE, WHEAT, FORECAST

Abstract: The article analyzes the possibility of constructing a multi-factor model of the market price for milling wheat of Russian production. Today the world market for agricultural products is a complexly organized system with its own infrastructure, financial institutions, price indicators and market makers. With the process of complicating the organization of the market itself, there was a complication in the determination of the market price and price indicators of the market. The pricing of agricultural products is complex and reflects the impact of the entire world economy. Today, the market price of an agricultural crop is the result of the interaction of many pricing factors that arise in various spheres of social life (production, exchange, consumption). The object of the research of the article is the factors influencing the fluctuations in the market price for Russian food wheat. As macroeconomic factors stand out: the final stocks of grain, indicators of gross harvest, seasonality, economic conditions, fluctuations in the price of processed products, exchange rate. The aim of the study is to establish the relationship between the highlighted macroeconomic factors and the price of Russian wheat on the basis of delivery FOB Novorossiysk as an indicator of the export price and CPT Novorossiysk as an indicator of prices in the domestic market. The time horizon of the analyzed historical data is 5 years. The authors see the validity of maximizing the reduction of variables in the multivariate model, since a large number of variables complicates the selection of the optimal solution. After analyzing the dependence of factors and historical data on market prices for food wheat, the author's version of a multivariate model for forecasting the market price is proposed.

Authors: Panarina Daria Sergeevna