Яндекс.Метрика

FORECAST OF AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD PRODUCTION IN RUSSIA IN 2030, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DYNAMICS OF THE LEVEL AND DIFFERENTIATION OF INCOME AND CONSUMPTION OF THE POPULATION


DOI 10.33305/2112-3

Issue № 12, 2021, article № 1, pages 3-12

Section: Agrarian policy: problems and decisions

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ И ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВИЯ В РОССИИ В 2030 ГОДУ С УЧЕТОМ ДИНАМИКИ УРОВНЯ И ДИФФЕРЕНЦИАЦИИ ДОХОДОВ И ПОТРЕБЛЕНИЯ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ

Keywords: FOOD CERTIFICATE, LONG-TERM FORECAST, DEMAND FUNCTIONS, FOOD, CONSUMPTION

Abstract: The article discusses approaches for forecasting of food consumption in general as well as in the context of decile groups of the population, developed by various scientific schools. The regression equations on the dependence of the Russian population food product consumption expenditures on total expenditures, as well as for certain food products, have been constructed. The analysis of the coefficients of elasticity of the food demand in general and on certain types of products in Russia in the context of decile groups is carried out, a comparison is made with the estimates of other authors, and conclusions are drawn about the possibilities of their use for forecasting demand. On the basis of demand equations and the economic-mathematical model, the forecast of agricultural production volumes for 2030 was updated, taking into account consumption by all population groups at the level of rational norms. An assessment was made on the growth in gross agricultural output in the case of launching the state program "Food Certificate" for the first three decile groups of the population with the lowest incomes. The necessary income growth of the population in the context of decile groups in constant prices was calculated to ensure consumption at the level of rational norms. Conclusions are drawn about the possibilities of exporting agricultural products in 2030 in the context of growing domestic demand.

Authors: KHarina Marina Viacheslavovna


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