Prospects for the Export of Russian Agri-food Products to the European Union

Issue № 10, 2021, article № 9, pages 80-86

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ ЭКСПОРТА АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ РОССИИ В ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЙ СОЮЗ

Keywords: EXPORT POTENTIAL, EUROPE, COMPLEMENTARITY, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES, AGRI-FOOD PRODUCTS

Abstract: Increasing exports of agri-food products is an important factor in achieving Russia's national development goals until 2030. The priority markets for Russian products include European Union countries. The key importance for the realization of the export potential of the Russian agriculture is to identify the features and assess the opportunities for the development of Russian agri-food exports to the EU countries, which is the purpose of this study. The degree of compliance of the export profile of Russia with the import profile of the EU countries, as well as the export profile of the EU with the import profile of Russia, were assessed using trade complementarity coefficients. The dynamics of complementarity indices indicate limited opportunities for a qualitative increase in Russian exports to the EU. The list of commodity groups for the export of which Russia has identified comparative advantages is established using the Balassa and Lafey indices. Most of the groups of agri-food products that Russia has advantages in exporting are supplied by our country to European markets. The share of such goods accounts for almost 60% of the current Russian agri-food exports to the EU countries. They also account for the bulk of the unrealized export potential of Russian agri-food products in European markets. Reaching the potential volumes of supplies to the EU will increase Russian exports of frozen fish to Europe by almost 3 times, wheat by 60%, corn by 5 times, and sunflower oil by almost 16 times. The full realization of Russia's export potential will increase by more than 70% the size of the supply of products to the pan-European market and thereby improve the negative balance of agri-food trade with the EU. At the same time, reaching a positive balance in Russia's agri-food trade with the EU in the foreseeable future is unlikely, despite the policy of the food embargo and the reorientation of Russian trade to the East.

Authors: Kiselev Sergei Viktorovich, Romashkin Roman Anatolevich, Belugin Aleksei IUrevich