Regression model of migration of the able-bodied population of rural territories (based on the materials of the saratov region)

Issue № 8, 2021, article № 10, pages 73-77

Section: Development of rural territories

Language: Russian

Original language title: РЕГРЕССИОННАЯ МОДЕЛЬ МИГРАЦИИ ТРУДОСПОСОБНОГО НАСЕЛЕНИЯ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ (НА МАТЕРИАЛАХ САРАТОВСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ)

Keywords: MIGRATION, RURAL AREAS, RURAL WORKING-AGE POPULATION, CORRELATION-REGRESSION MODEL, INFLUENCING FACTORS, STANDARD OF LIVING, DISPOSABLE INCOME, EMPLOYMENT

Abstract: At present, in the Volga region, the ratio of fertility, mortality and migration processes determines a steady decline in the population. This trend is especially pronounced in rural areas due to the fact that the socio-economic, engineering, household and cultural conditions of their development lag significantly behind cities of regional importance and from large industrial agglomerations. Insufficient knowledge of the impact of socio-economic factors on the demographic development of rural areas, as well as the high scientific and practical significance of the development and implementation of models of socio-demographic development in the countryside served as the basis for the research. The correlation-regression model of the intensity of the migration flow of the working-age population of rural areas was developed as part of three objects (the first - areas with a high migration outflow; the second - areas with an average migration outflow; the third - areas with a low migration outflow) using independent variables, systematized on the basis of the experience of foreign and domestic studies (factors-regulators and factors-conditions) and for each of them, differentiated management solutions are proposed for the practical implementation of the model at the regional level. It was found that for all the regions under study, the greatest response of the dependent variable to the independent ones was found in terms of the growth of disposable income and the level of formal employment. As predicted calculations show, by 2025 the migration outflow will decrease by 14-91 people, depending on the analytical gradation. Also, according to the simulation results, it was found that for a more radical solution to the problem and achieving a positive mechanical increase in the economically active population in rural areas, a more extensive list of management decisions is needed, especially in areas with a high and average outflow of the able-bodied population, it is necessary to reduce the tax burden of producers and processors of agricultural products through the introduction of property tax incentives in order to increase the volume of the regional product, as well as to strengthen support for all types of businesses and self-employed citizens.

Authors: Glukhov Sergei