Forecast scenarios of innovative and technological development of grain production in the novosibirsk region

Issue № 8, 2021, article № 5, pages 31-36

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗНЫЕ СЦЕНАРИИ ИННОВАЦИОННО-ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ ЗЕРНОВОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА НОВОСИБИРСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Keywords: FORECASTING, SCENARIOS, TECHNICAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL LEVEL, INDUSTRY, WAY OF LIFE, CROP PRODUCTION, GRAIN, ECONOMY, ANALYSIS, EFFICIENCY

Abstract: On the basis of generalization and study of statistical data and evaluation of significant criteria characterizing the level of innovation in the grain production industry, forecast scenarios of innovative and technological development of grain production in the Novosibirsk region were developed. The main ones are: the purchase of elite and original seeds, the share of foreign-selected seeds, sowing with non-grade seeds, the use of mineral fertilizers, the share of fungicides from the sown area, the share of farms working on intensive technologies, the growth rate of the number of equipment, the level of digitalization of equipment, the shortage of specialists from the real need for production, the growth of average wheat yield, the share of food grain. The method of pre-forecast studies was used, with the help of which a logical sequence of events is established in order to show how, based on the existing situation; the future state of the object of research can develop. The scenario forecasting innovative and technological development specifies alternative events and the likely timing of their occurrence. The reasons for choosing the scenario approach were the increased uncertainty, instability, unpredictability of political, social and economic events. Methodically, the research is based on the main prerequisites for the innovative and technological development of grain production and the grain market from the scenario forecast of the development of the grain market in Russia. The basic one, realistic, assumes extensive development, a low rate of yield growth while simultaneously increasing the acreage. Optimistic, due to innovative development and expanded domestic consumption, it provides a high rate of yield growth while simultaneously increasing the acreage. Pessimistic, due to stagnation, the acreage is practically not growing; the yield growth rate is low.

Authors: Dereviankin Aleksandr Viacheslavovich, Zakharov Andrei Fedorovich