Influence of agricultural production rates on the level of rural unemployment

Issue № 8, 2021, article № 1, pages 3-7

Language: Russian

Original language title: ВЛИЯНИЕ ТЕМПОВ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА НА УРОВЕНЬ СЕЛЬСКОЙ БЕЗРАБОТИЦЫ

Keywords: AGRARIAN LABOR MARKET, RURAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, PRODUCTION RATES, AGRICULTURE, MODELING

Abstract: The aim of the study is to assess and model the impact of agricultural production rates on the level and dynamics of rural unemployment in Russia. To analyze the relationship between production and unemployment, a modified Okun's model was used. Econometric analysis was carried out using panel data, the sample includes 78 regions, and the study period is 2000-2019. The results of the assessment indicate that the coefficient of elasticity is –0.13. This means that one percent increase in agricultural production leads to a 0.13 percentage point reduction in unemployment. The weak sensitivity of rural unemployment to changes in output is explained, first of all, by the declining share of agriculture in the structure of employment in rural areas. The intensification and digitalization of the agrarian economy is changing the nature of the output-unemployment relationship. In addition, the mechanism for adapting the agricultural labor market to economic changes includes not only an increase or decrease in the number of people employed in agriculture, but also a reduction in working hours, a decrease in the level or delays in wage payments. The reduction of rural unemployment will be facilitated, firstly, by ensuring the country's food independence, expanding the volume and diversifying the directions of food export. Secondly, the potential of import substitution in the domestic market has not been exhausted. Third, the expansion of the production of organic food will increase, because the demand for which increasing along with the growth of incomes of the population. Fourth, the development of non-agricultural types of employment base on the strategy of multifunctional development of rural areas. Fifth, support for the development of small and medium-sized businesses in rural areas. The data obtained can be used to develop regional strategies for sustainable development of rural areas.

Authors: Blinova Tatiana Viktorovna, Markov Vladimir Aleksandrovich