Simulation of socio-demographic processes of rural development

Issue № 4, 2021, article № 10, pages 81-87

Section: Development of rural territories

Language: Russian

Original language title: ИМИТАЦИОННОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИХ ПРОЦЕССОВ РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ

Keywords: SIMULATION MODELING, SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES, RURAL AREAS, REGION

Abstract: Currently, in rural areas of Russia, there is a difficult socio-economic situation: low income compared to the city, unemployment, poor condition or lack of social and household infrastructure. This situation has led to a deterioration in demographic indicators – a decline in the birth rate, an increase in mortality and migration outflow of the population. Insufficient knowledge of the impact of socio-economic factors on the demographic development of rural areas, as well as the high scientific and practical significance of the development and implementation of models of socio - demographic development in rural areas served as the basis for the study. Modeling of the socio-demographic development of rural areas will help identify the factors that are most important for these processes, and with the help of competent management decisions, level out their impact on the situation in the villages of the region. The aim of the study is to develop a simulation model of the socio-demographic development of rural areas. The theoretical, methodological and information base of the research was made up of the works of domestic and foreign scientists devoted to various aspects of socio-economic and demographic development in rural areas, data from Rosstat, materials of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation and the Volga regions, federal, regional and municipal regulations, programs. The simulation of socio-demographic processes in rural areas of the Saratov region, taking into account the differentiation of socio-economic factors that affect the increase in the birth rate and the decrease in the death rate, was performed in the Ithink application using the Statistica package for constructing regression equations. The original model showed a decrease in the population by 41 thousand people over 7 years. Changing factors such as the average per capita income and the number of objects with stationary sources of pollution in accordance with the current regulatory documents of the region, allowed us to simulate a situation in which the birth rate will increase and the mortality rate will decrease, which will slow down the rate of population decline.

Authors: Kudriashova Ekaterina Vladimirovna, Kriuchkov Gennadii Gennadevich, Providonova Natalia Vladimirovna