HOW TO IMPROVE THE PLANNING OF THE FEDERAL PROJECT "EXPORT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS"

DOI 10.33305/2010-41

Issue № 10, 2020, article № 4, pages 41-50

Section: Economic mechanism of managing

Language: Russian

Original language title: КАК УЛУЧШИТЬ ПЛАНИРОВАНИЕ ФЕДЕРАЛЬНОГО ПРОЕКТА «ЭКСПОРТ ПРОДУКЦИИ АПК»

Keywords: EXPORT, PLANNING FAILURES, SIMULATION, MATHEMATICAL MODELING IN ECONOMICS, GRAIN, RESOURCE USAGE, LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY, ASTRAKHAN OBLAST

Abstract: Scientific literature thoroughly debates the foresights and risks of the federal project “Export of production of agro-industrial complex”. However, the failures of its planning have not been studied. The paper shows that, as a consequence of such failures, some federal subjects of Russia have made such commitments that are either cannot be fulfilled or may yield severe difficulties. This is proved by the outcome of computer simulation on the model of equilibria in the regional markets of agricultural production. The simulated scenario reflects the regional commitments on the federal project made for year 2019. It is found that six oblasts adjacent to the state border, namely Amur, Astrakhan, Bryansk, Kaliningrad, Rostov and Smolensk, are unable to fulfil their obligations under the scenario terms. The case of the Astrakhan oblast has shown that the oblast made its commitment on grain assuming that the transit of exported grain from other regions is to be accounted for. As a consequence, its year 2019 commitment exceeds the existing grain production almost 24 times, while its planned production growth for the period 2014 to 2019 is just 49‰. Thus, the commitment of the Astrakhan oblast needs to be revised. Based on the performed analysis, it is proposed to reform the planning system for the federal project so as to supplement it with obligatory resource usage calculations for each federal subject taking into account its commitment. This can be provided by means of the mathematical economic model that has been applied for this study. Moreover, it is suggested to publish rationale for the federal subjects' commitments for the purpose of timely revealing inaccuracies by the expert community.

Authors: Svetlov Nikolai Mikhailovich