REVENUE OF RUSSIAN PRODUCERS FROM AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS: ANALYSIS OF FORMATION FACTORS DURING EXPLOSIVE GROWTH
DOI 10.33305/209-71
Issue № 9, 2020, article № 8, pages 71-81
Section: Agro-industrial market
Language: Russian
Original language title: ВЫРУЧКА РОССИЙСКИХ ТОВАРОПРОИЗВОДИТЕЛЕЙ ОТ ЭКСПОРТА АГРАРНОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ: АНАЛИЗ ФАКТОРОВ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ В ПЕРИОД ВЗРЫВНОГО РОСТА
Keywords: AGRI-FOOD POLICY, AGRI-FOOD COMPLEX, EXPORT, AGRO-INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS, INTEGRATED FACTOR ANALYSIS
Abstract: The transition of the agro-industrial complex to an export-oriented model of development was updating the task of identifying factors that could lead to an increase in food supplies to foreign markets. This study presents the results of a quantitative assessment of the influence of factors on the revenue of agricultural producers related to exports. The analysis in the interim aspect affects the period 2000-2018, during which export potential was formed and there was an explosive increase in supplies to foreign markets, and in the subject area - the export of wheat, sunflower seeds, soybeans and their processed products, which in this period amounted to about 80‰ of Russian agricultural exports. The main method of research is an integrated factor analysis of the functional model of estimated revenue from the sale of export-oriented products. The article establishes the need to take into account the low base in the analysis of the dynamics of individual products: sunflower since 2000, wheat since 2002, soybeans since 2009. Periods of formation of export potential (2000-2009), instability (2010-2012) and growth (2013-2018) of agricultural exports were highlighted. The impact of price factors, quantity and quality of exported agricultural products, the world food and financial markets, as well as the costs of export-oriented goods movement on revenue in terms of the main export products were assessed. It was established that the main factor in the growth of the value of exports was the growth of its physical volume, with a positive contribution of inflationary processes and a decrease in the real rouble exchange rate in 2013-2018. The article concludes that the effect of currency imbalance has been exhausted and the potential of agricultural exports for analyzed products has increased based on a possible recovery in world food prices and a convergence of export prices generated by intermediaries and producer prices.
Authors: Ternovskii Denis Sergeevich