Current state and forecast trends in the development of horticulture in dagestan

Issue № 8, 2020, article № 7, pages 80-89

Language: Russian

Original language title: СОВРЕМЕННОЕ СОСТОЯНИЕ И ПРОГНОЗНЫЕ ТЕНДЕНЦИИ РАЗВИТИЯ САДОВОДСТВА В ДАГЕСТАНЕ

Keywords: HORTICULTURE, FRUIT CROPS, AREA OF PLANTATIONS, YIELD, GROSS COLLECTION, INTENSIVE GARDEN, FORECASTING, DYNAMICS, MODEL, FORMS OF ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MULTI-PLOT ECONOMY, STATE SUPPORT, INVESTMENTS, INNOVATIONS

Abstract: The article reveals the development of horticulture in the Republic of Dagestan, as one of the leading horticultural regions of the country. The purpose of the article is to analyze the current state and industry and predict the main trends for the future. Despite the leadership positions observed in recent years in the all-Russian volume of production, deep technical and technological backwardness and loss of qualified personnel remained. This is an important factor in the low efficiency of an industry of high socio-economic importance. The aim of the work is to analyse the current situation and to identify projected trends in the development of horticulture in the region in order to make concrete economic decisions that can increase its economic efficiency and sustainability. In the article, an analysis of the main indicators of horticulture development (sown areas, yield, gross collection, volume of empire, level of supply of fruit products) was carried out for 2000-2019. It was concluded that there were insufficient trends in progressive movement with regard to the supply of fruit products for the full food supply of the population. Medium-term projections of changes in key development indicators and forecast scenarios until 2025 have been developed. A forecast model for the development of the industry has been drawn up, with an indication of the main directions for the technical and technological updating of production. It has been established that the development of horticulture according to the target scenario will increase by 1.3 times the fruit-bearing area, and the volume of fruit production - by 2 times. It is predicted that the archaic agrarian structure in the region, with the dominant role of personal auxiliary farms of the population, will remain in the production of fruit products. There is a need for mandatory State support for small forms of economic management in the formation of an efficient agrarian structure, the introduction of innovations and the attraction of investments. This will contribute to the growth not only of quantitative, but also of qualitative indicators of the industry. The results and conclusions of the study could be used to improve regional programmes for the development of horticulture in Dagestan and to identify effective ways of development.

Authors: Velibekova Luiza Alikovna