Factors of rural unemployment during the economic recession

Issue № 4, 2020, article № 7, pages 62-68

Section: Development of rural territories

Language: Russian

Original language title: ФАКТОРЫ СЕЛЬСКОЙ БЕЗРАБОТИЦЫ В ПЕРИОД ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ РЕЦЕССИИ

Keywords: AGRARIAN LABOUR MARKET, RURAL UNEMPLOYMENT, RISK FACTORS, RECESSION, REGRESSION MODELS

Abstract: The purpose of the study is a quantitative analysis of factors affecting the level of rural unemployment during the global financial crisis (2008-2009) and economic recession (2014-2015). The econometric analysis was carried out on the basis of the general regression model (GRM), in which the method of the best subsets was used. Model specifications were selected; a Pareto-assessment of the impact of economic, social, demographic factors on the level of rural unemployment was carried out, which ranked them in decreasing order of strength and significance. The result of the study was the determination of statistically significant factors and determinants that affect the level of rural unemployment. The greatest influence was exerted by such factors on the supply side as the share of youth in the structure of the rural population, the share of unemployed with higher education. Calculations showed that an increase in the share of youth by 1‰ on average led to an increase in rural unemployment by 1.1‰ in 2009 and by 0.5‰ in 2014. On the demand side, investments in fixed assets had a statistically significant effect on rural unemployment agriculture, as well as the share of people employed in agriculture. The share of the rural population in its overall structure, as well as the share of those employed in agriculture, turned out to be statistically significant for the 2014 model and insignificant in 2009. The share of the rural population is higher in the region; the risk of rural unemployment has the higher growth in economic recession. Scope: the results of the study can be used to assess risks in the agrarian labour market when developing and implementing regional anti-crisis policies, as well as by the academic community to study the behavioural reactions of regional labour markets to economic shocks in different phases of the business cycle.

Authors: Blinova Tatiana Viktorovna