Forecast of changes of crop areas in the russian federation for the period up to 2025

Issue № 2, 2020, article № 5, pages 38-46

Language: Russian

Original language title: ПРОГНОЗ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ ПОСЕВНЫХ ПЛОЩАДЕЙ ДЛЯ ВОЗДЕЛЫВАНИЯ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ КУЛЬТУР В РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ НА ПЕРИОД ДО 2025 ГОДА

Keywords: FORECAST OF CHANGES OF CROP AREAS, THE MOST VALUABLE AGRICULTURAL LAND, PROSPECTS FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, STATISTICAL MODELING

Abstract: The article considers the problem of the withdrawal of cropland from agricultural use in Russian Federation. The authors attempted, using the tools of statistical analysis, to make a forecast of changes in cultivated areas for the period up to 2025, as part of the strategic planning process for the development of agricultural land use in the Russian Federation for the medium term. The model for the forecast was selected by cross-validation taking into account the time factor, and a combination of three best models was chosen as the resulting model: random walk, theta model and exponential smoothing model. According to the forecast, by 2025 it is possible to expect an increase in crop area in the amount of 0.6 million hectares or 0.13‰ per year. The largest reduction in area is expected in the Republic of Bashkortostan, Kemerovo and Chelyabinsk regions. The largest increase is in the Bryansk and Amur regions.

Authors: Polunin Gennadii Andreevich, Alakoz Valerii Vladimirovich, CHerkashin Kirill Igorevich